Planning priority conservation areas for biodiversity under climate change in topographically complex areas: A case study in Sichuan province, China

suggested that connecting areas with suitable temperature identified corridors for movement in response to climate change [53]. Anderson demonstrated that new shelters were created in areas with similar topographic characteristics for species under climate change [52]. Similarly, our assumption depends on existing the number of suitable patches in topographically com- plex areas. Thus, there are good reasons why our approach is well-suited for quantifying the effect of topographic complexity under climate change. 4.3. Conservation planning for climate change Both species distributions and human activities ultimately determine the pattern of conserva- tion areas [54]. Several approaches have been proposed to predict changes in species distribu- tions to optimize priority conservation areas, our approach highlighted the effect of topography in conservation planning. Incorporating topographic complexity as conservation cost into con- servation planning frameworks may reduce uncertainties because it addresses the relationships among biodiversity, topography, climate change, and land use. On one hand, it is noteworthy that the impacts of climate change on species will be more severe for 2011–2040 than those for 2031–2060, yet the area of priority conservation areas show no remarkable change. An explana- tion is that the effect of topography may provide concentrated refugia for species adaptation. On the other hand, expanded conservation areas may influence local economic development, as

well as be criticized as impractical objectives for biodiversity conservation [55]. Our results sug- gested that planning areas were distributed in topographic complexity where human activities might be inaccessible as well as the agriculture cannot be developed. Thus, as for biodiversity conservation, topographic complexity should be considered explicitly in conservation planning for long–term sustainability. Furthermore, another significant source of uncertainty is that plan new conservation areas arises from conflicting with current conservation investments. In our study, nature reserves, as important infrastructure for biodiversity conservation, were also planned in new priority con- servation areas. According to the distributions of priority conservation areas in different peri- ods, our results are nearly sufficient to cover more than 90% of current protected areas. As for biodiversity conservation in Sichuan province, managers should enlarge conserva- tion areas as well as make standardized and flexible strategies for conservation networks to reduce uncertainties in the impacts of climate change. First, the distributions of species in tran- sition zones should implement in situ conservation; Second, we recommended that existing nature reserves should reinforce the management while reducing other threats enhance adap- tation for climate change in new priority conservation areas. Finally, conservation policies should set management goals of nature reserves for addressing climate change. 5. Conclusions

In this study, we developed an algorithm to quantify the effect of topographic complexity on adaptation to climate change, as well as was incorporated into planning conservation areas. Results from quantitative assessment suggested that topographic complexity can be useful to enhance adaptation below 1.2˚C of temperature increase. As for Sichuan province, identifying the area of priority conservation areas covered 136,420 km2 for 2011–2040, and 125,980 km2 for 2031–2060, respectively. Although the conservation areas should be expanded for address- ing climate change, planning areas were more realistic and practical due to the effect of topo- graphic complexity. Thus, our approach can be applied to planning priority conservation areas under climate change in mountainous areas, which may reduce uncertainties in the conserva- tion planning framework by quantifying the effect of topographic complexity. PLOS ONE Planning priority conservation areas for biodiversity under climate change in topographically complex areas PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0243425 December 23, 2020 12 / 15