Addressing risks to biodiversity arising from a changing climate: The need for ecosystem restoration in the Tana River Basin, Kenya

conservation resources. Approximately 29% of the projected refugia at 2˚C warming have already been converted to agriculture. With warming of 4.5˚C, only 21% of the basin is projected to contain refugia for at least one taxonomic group, including 11% within PAs (Fig 4). Of this, nearly a quarter (23% of projected refugia) has already been lost to agriculture. These ‘lost refugia’ often border PAs; particularly in the north of the basin and in the delta region in the southeast. For most taxonomic groups, Fig 2. Basin-average proportion of species richness lost with different levels of global temperature rise. Data are presented as the mean across 21 GCMs, with error bars indicating the 10 to 90% range. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0254879.g002 PLOS ONE Risks to Kenya’s biodiversity from climate change PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0254879 July 21, 2021 7 / 25