Impacts of climate change on agro-climatic suitability of major food crops in Ghana

In addition to these crop-specific climate responses, the predominant outcome of the suit- ability modeling is that the impacts of climate change are site and crop-specific. The impacts are determined by both the biophysical factors that influence crop viability and the specific genetic characteristics of the crops. Shifts in crop suitability have been identified as a key influ- ence of climate change, spurring a need for adequate adaptation measures in the identified areas or planning for food transfer systems that distribute food between the areas that will become suitable and those that will become marginal for a particular crop [19, 86]. This study indicates that there will be a reduction in the suitability of multiple crops in Ghana under climate change. Areas which are currently optimally and moderately suitable for production of the four crops will decrease while areas marginally and moderately suit- able for two or more crops will increase. Although multiple crop suitability does not indi- cate potential for growing the crops together, the reduced potential for multiple crops under climate change reduces the choices farmers have in terms of crop production, which increases risks. The more the crops are suitable for a farmer in a pixel, the mode the farmer can make production choices for crops for both food security and trading of surplus, which are both being curtailed by climate change. Furthermore, the finding that two crop combi- nations involving sorghum and groundnuts for the north and maize and groundnuts for the

south have the most potential under climate change is important for adaptation planning and investment in these crops. Fig 7. Area fractions suitable for (a) maize and sorghum (b) Maize and cassava (c) Maize and Groundnut (d) Cassava and Sorghum, (e) cassava and groundnut and (f) Sorghum and groundnut. The lines are Gaussian distribution fit for each climatic scenario. Ld-Ld is for limited suitability for both crops, Ld-Mg is area with limited for one of the 2 crops and marginal for the other, Mg-Mg is area where both crops are marginal, Mg-Md is area that is marginal for one crop while moderately suitable for the other crop, Md-Md is where both crops are moderately suitable, Md-Op is where one crop is moderately suitable and the other has optimal suitability and Op-Op is where both crops are optimally suitable. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0229881.g007 PLOS ONE Climate change and food crops suitability in Ghana PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0229881 June 29, 2020 15 / 21