Climate change impacts on population growth across a species’ range differ due to nonlinear responses of populations to climate and variation in rates of climate change

Table 1. Vital rate functions. Vital rate Intercept Log(size at previous census) [Log(size at previous census)] ^2 Precipitation in coldest month Temperature in coldest month Annual precipitation Average annual temperature Precipitation in coldest month (year prior) Temperature in coldest month (year prior) Precipitation in coldest month (year prior) x log (size in the previous time step) Temperature in coldest month (year prior) x log (size in the previous time step) Adjusted R2 Logit (survival) -22.307 -0.697 -0.107 -1.022 1.262 -1.163 0.007 0.050 3.9534 0.116 0.022 0.176 0.217 0.205 0.001 0.015 Mean log (size) at next census 1.188 0.727 –0.0004 0.293 0.73 0.204 0.0202 0.0002 0.023 Log (variance in log(size) at next census –1.884 –0.118 0.006 0.102 0.049 Logit (fruiting) –2.629 2.067 –0.017 –0.251 0.404 0.227 0.004 0.066 Log (number of fruits per unit size given fruiting) 0.519 –0.218 –0.208 0.57 0.166 0.072 0.023 Population C E1 E2 N S Seedlings per fruit 0.193 0.333 0.160 0.097 0.196 Coefficient estimates (first row) and their standard errors (second row) in the best-fit models for each vital rate. All coefficients are significantly different from zero at the 0.05 level. We also show estimates of seedlings per fruit (recruitment) for each population. Adjusted R2 of the best fit model is shown in the last column, if appropriate. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247290.t001 PLOS ONE Nonlinear responses of population growth rate to climate change

PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247290 March 3, 2021 8 / 20