Climate change impacts on population growth across a species’ range differ due to nonlinear responses of populations to climate and variation in rates of climate change
pmc-PMC7928526.pdf · Phiên bản 1 · 20 trang
Acknowledgments We thank the many people who helped with field work, as well as comments from reviewers who greatly improved the paper. Author Contributions Conceptualization: Allison M. Louthan, William Morris. Formal analysis: Allison M. Louthan, William Morris. Funding acquisition: William Morris. Investigation: Allison M. Louthan. Supervision: William Morris. Writing – original draft: Allison M. Louthan, William Morris. Writing – review & editing: Allison M. Louthan, William Morris. References 1. Chen IC, Hill JK, Ohlemu¨ller R, Roy DB, & Thomas CD. Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science 2011; 333: 1024–1026. https://doi.org/10.1126/science. 1206432 PMID: 21852500 2. Parmesan C. Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 2006; 37: 637–669. 3. Post E, Alley RB, Christensen TR, Macias-Fauria M, Forbes BC, Gooseff MN, et al. The polar regions in a 2˚C warmer world. Sci Adv 2019; 5: eaaw9883. 4. Ashcroft MB, Chisholm LA, & French KO. Climate change at the landscape scale: Predicting fine- grained spatial heterogeneity in warming and potential refugia for vegetation. Glob Chang Biol 2009; 15: 656–667. 5. Spooner FEB, Pearson RG, & Freeman R. Rapid warming is associated with population decline among terrestrial birds and mammals globally. Glob Chang Biol 2018; 24: 4521–4531. https://doi.org/10.1111/ gcb.14361 PMID: 30033551 6. Nigam S, Thomas NP, Ruiz-Barradas A, & Weaver SJ. Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of
the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms. J Clim 2017; 30: 6521–6541. 7. Forchhammer MC, Post E, Stenseth NC, Boertmann DM, Forchhammer MC, Post E, et al. Long-term responses in arctic ungulate dynamics to changes in climatic and trophic processes. Popul Ecol 2002; 44: 113–120. 8. Sæther B-E, Engen S, Møller AP, Matthysen E, Adriaensen F, Fiedler W, et al. Climate variation and regional gradients in population dynamics of two hole-nesting passerines. Proc R Soc Lond B: Biol Sci 2003; 270: 2397–2404. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2003.2499 PMID: 14667357 9. Saether B-E, Lillegård M, Grøtan V, Drever MC, Engen S, Nudds TD, et al. Geographical gradients in the population dynamics of North American prairie ducks. J Anim Ecol 2008; 77: 869–882. https://doi. org/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01424.x PMID: 18631261 10. Caswell H. Matrix population models: construction, analysis, and interpretation. Sunderland: Sinauer Associates; 2001 11. Maldonado-Chaparro AA, Blumstein DT, Armitage KB, & Childs DZ. Transient LTRE analysis reveals the demographic and trait-mediated processes that buffer population growth. Ecol Lett 2018; 21: 1693– 1703. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13148 PMID: 30252195 12. Louthan AM, Pringle RM, Goheen JR, Palmer TM, Morris WF, & Doak DF. Aridity weakens population- level effects of multiple species interactions on Hibiscus meyeri. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2018; 115: 543–548. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708436115 PMID: 29284748 13. Sheth SN & Angert AL. Demographic compensation does not rescue populations at a trailing range
edge. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2018; 115: 2413–2418. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1715899115 PMID: 29463711 14. McCarthy D, Townley S, & Hodgson D. On second order sensitivity for stage-based population projec- tion matrix models. Theor Popul Biol 2008; 74: 68–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tpb.2008.04.008 PMID: 18619389 PLOS ONE Nonlinear responses of population growth rate to climate change PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247290 March 3, 2021 18 / 20