Climate change impacts on population growth across a species’ range differ due to nonlinear responses of populations to climate and variation in rates of climate change

This effect occurs even though the N population is projected to experience the greatest increase in average annual temperature (Fig 4B). For other climate variables, both the degree of change in climate conditions and climate responsiveness are key determinants of changes in popula- tion growth rate (Table 2). Fig 7. Nonlinear responses of D. alaskana to climate. Response of annual population growth rates (λ) to changes in aspects of temperature and precipitation that affect vital rates. Unfilled points represent medians (across bootstrapped regression coefficients) of the annual population growth rates vs. the current and future GCM climate values for each year from 2008 to 2099; curves represent predictions of population-specific GAMs with non-focal climate variables held at their mean values. Arrows on the top of the figures represent the magnitude of climate change at each population; start of the arrow is at the mean climate condition for the current period (2008–2022) and end of the arrow is at the mean climate condition for the future period (2086–2100). Filled points represent population growth rates predicted by the GAM at current and future mean climates, with an asterisk indicating future population growth rate predicted by an LTRE approach. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247290.g007 PLOS ONE Nonlinear responses of population growth rate to climate change PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247290 March 3, 2021 13 / 20