Climate change impacts on population growth across a species’ range differ due to nonlinear responses of populations to climate and variation in rates of climate change

the rate of climate change also contributes to differential impacts of climate change across pop- ulations. Thus, our work suggests that current responses to climate may not continue indefi- nitely under continued changes in climate, but that populations may differ dramatically in their responses to future climate, even if their current responses to climate are very similar to one another. This is important because often conservationists only have data on current responses to climate, rather than future response to climate. All of these factors are likely to generate idiosyncratic responses to climate across populations. Thus, our work may provide a framework for understanding why many species do not show predictable shifts in their geo- graphic range with climate change [2, 47, 48]. Supporting information S1 Appendix. (DOCX) PLOS ONE Nonlinear responses of population growth rate to climate change PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247290 March 3, 2021 17 / 20

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