Are climate change perceptions related with plastic policy support? Effects of climate change skepticism, guilt, and efficacy on the acceptance of the plastic tax

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0337327 December 29, 2025 3 / 30 (TPB) suggests attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control influence behavioral intentions [16]. Climate change skepticism significantly moderates environmental policy support [17], while guilt motivates pro-environmental behaviors when individuals perceive personal climate responsibility [18]. Third, risk perception paradigm indicates that perceived climate risks drive mitigation policy support [19], with higher climate risk perception correlating with increased environmental regulation support [20]. The link between climate change perceptions and plastic tax support emerges from plastic production’s connection to greenhouse gas emissions, with plastic lifecycle contributing approximately 4–8% of global emissions [21]. Citizens per- ceiving climate change as serious risk more likely support emission-targeting policies, including plastic taxation [22]. Environmental policy acceptance requires multi-paradigm integration because single theories systematically under- predict behavior, explaining only 19–39% of variance [23]. Integration is theoretically necessary because environmental policies activate multiple psychological systems simultaneously. Values determine what risks matter [24], risk perceptions shape policy attitudes [25], and behavioral intentions require perceived control and normative support [16]. Combined models explain 52–58% of environmental behavior variance compared to 27–39% for single theories [26].

Our study focuses on plastic tax rather than direct prohibitions because economic incentives are often more effective for behavioral change. Rivers et al. [10] explained that taxes are more cost-effective than mandatory bans and generate less social resistance. Additionally, taxation represents an integrative approach affecting both consumers and producers [27]. We examined both direct and indirect impacts of skepticism, guilt, and climate change efficacy on plastic tax prefer- ence, particularly focusing on moderating roles within TPB. The moderation role of planned behavior factors is theoretically grounded in TPB extensions. Climate change skepti- cism functions as a cognitive filter moderating value-behavior relationships through motivated reasoning [24], with skep- tical individuals selectively processing information to confirm existing beliefs [28]. Guilt’s moderating role is supported by affective-cognitive interaction theories, where emotional states amplify cognitive processing [29], enhancing relationships between environmental concerns and behavioral intentions [23]. Self-efficacy’s moderation reflects social cognitive theory predictions that efficacy beliefs determine whether environmental values translate into behavioral intentions [30], strength- ening value-behavior relationships by increasing confidence in meaningful contributions [31]. Literature review The state of plastic world and public policy During the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a rapid increase in the use of plastics, which are a major source of

greenhouse gas emissions. A prolonged pandemic would have led to graver environmental issues. The use of plastic during that period skyrocketed to the point that a new phrase, “corona trash,” was coined. For example, the Korea Envi- ronment Agency compared the amount of plastic trash produced in 2020, when the pandemic began, with that in Febru- ary 2022, and found that it increased 2.14 times, with a recycling rate of 68.1%, which was rather low compared to the increasing amount of plastic used. In addition, the emergence of microplastics has increased plastic pollution. According to United Nations Environment Program [32], in the early 2000s, the amount of plastic waste produced rose more in a single decade than it had in the previous 40 years. Global production of primary plastic is expected to reach 1,100 million tons by 2050. The level of greenhouse gas emissions related to the production, use, and disposal of conventional fossil fuel-based plastics is esti- mated to account for 19% of the global carbon budget by 2040. Plastic waste is now transforming into microplastics, which threaten natural and human ecosystems. A 2019 study by a team of researchers at Newcastle University in Australia, supported by the World Wide Fund for Nature [33], found that the average weekly per capita intake of microplastics is 5 grams. This means that microplastics are found in tap water, bottled water, streams, lakes, rivers, and oceans, in addition to the living environment and seafood worldwide.