Climate change belief systems across political groups in the United States

RESEARCH ARTICLE Climate change belief systems across political groups in the United States Sanguk LeeID1*, Matthew H. Goldberg1, Seth A. Rosenthal1, Edward W. Maibach2, John E. Kotcher2, Anthony Leiserowitz1 1 Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America, 2 Center for Climate Change Communication, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, United States of America * lswook555@gmail.com Abstract Beliefs and attitudes form the core of public opinion about climate change. Network analysis can reveal the structural configuration of these beliefs and attitudes. In this research, we uti- lize a belief system framework to identify key psychological elements, track change in the density of these belief systems over time and across political groups, and analyze the struc- tural heterogeneity of belief systems within and between political groups in the United States. Drawing on fifteen waves of nationally representative survey data from 2010 to 2021 (N = 16,742), our findings indicate that worry about climate change is the most central psy- chological element. Interestingly, we find that among politically unaffiliated individuals, the connections between psychological elements have strengthened over time, implying an increase in the consistency of belief systems within this group. Despite the political polariza- tion in beliefs about climate change between Republicans and Democrats, our findings reveal that the ways these two groups organize and structure climate change beliefs sys-

tems are not markedly different compared to those of other groups. These findings provide theoretical and practical insights for climate change experts and communicators. Introduction The successful implementation of many climate solutions hinges on public approval and adop- tion. As such, understanding public beliefs and attitudes about climate change is critical. Aca- demics often examine the relationships among diverse psychological elements, such as beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy support. Earlier research has found that beliefs that climate change is real and human-caused, perception of scientific consensus, and risk perceptions about cli- mate change are associated with support for climate actions and policies [1–3]. This literature offers valuable insights into public beliefs and attitudes about climate change. However, it has historically focused on relationships between specific psychological elements without fully addressing the interconnected nature of these components within a broader belief system. For example, although worry and risk perceptions are crucial predictors of cli- mate policy support [1], our understanding of how these psychological elements are PLOS ONE PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0300048 March 20, 2024 1 / 16 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 OPEN ACCESS Citation: Lee S, Goldberg MH, Rosenthal SA, Maibach EW, Kotcher JE, Leiserowitz A (2024) Climate change belief systems across political groups in the United States. PLoS ONE 19(3): e0300048. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0300048

Editor: Enkeleint A. Mechili, UV: Universiteti Ismail Qemali Vlore, ALBANIA Received: September 9, 2023 Accepted: February 20, 2024 Published: March 20, 2024 Peer Review History: PLOS recognizes the benefits of transparency in the peer review process; therefore, we enable the publication of all of the content of peer review and author responses alongside final, published articles. The editorial history of this article is available here: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0300048 Copyright: © 2024 Lee et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data Availability Statement: All files including data, R code, R code’s output, and a minimal dataset are available from OSF (URL: https://osf.io/ 4e5sh/, DOI: 10.17605/OSF.IO/4E5SH).