Spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change

impacting areas such as poverty, food security, and ecological conservation. Carbon storage supports 7 SDGs with 19 targets, closely related to energy sustainability and climate action. Water yield supports 10 SDGs with 25 targets, addressing food and water security as well as sustainable urban development. Soil retention supports 2 SDGs with 9 targets, primarily linked to water resource management and ecological conservation. Overall, these ESs demonstrate the importance of ecosystem health for sustainable development, being indispensable in both environmental protection and socio-economic development. In this experiment, the weights of ESs indicators and SDGs indicators were both set to 1, implying equal importance in the assessment calculations. The calculation formula is as follows [53–56]: SDGj ¼ X n i¼1 ðES~ i � GijÞ X n i¼1 Gij ð10Þ SDGs ¼ X m j¼1 ðSDGjÞ m ð11Þ In the formula, SDGj represents the score for the jth goal, and Gij is the amount of support provided by the ith ES for the jth SDG. 3. Results 3.1. Land-use simulations based on climate change The LUC trends in the karst region of southeastern Yunnan by 2035 remain consistent across different scenarios. In all three scenarios, water and build-up land show varying degrees of increase, whereas farmland, forest, grassland, and unused land exhibit different degrees of reduction. However, there are significant differences in the intensity of these changes and spa- tial patterns (Fig 3, Table 3). Under the SSP126 scenario, farmland protection is optimal, with

a decrease of 218.29 km2 compared to 2020, which is lower than the 232.08 km2 and 240.36 km2 decreases seen in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Forest area decreases the least under the SSP245 scenario, with a reduction of 189.36 km2 compared to 2020, which is Fig 3. Spatial patterns of LUC in 2035 different scenarios. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316605.g003 PLOS ONE Sustainable development simulation under climate change: A spatiotemporal ecosystem services approach PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316605 February 4, 2025 8 / 19