Spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change

AETij Pi ¼ 1 þ oiRi 1 þ oiRi þ 1=Ri ð2Þ oi ¼ Z � AWCi Pi ð3Þ Ri ¼ kij � AET Pi ð4Þ AWCi ¼ MinðMSDi; RDiÞ � PAWCi ð5Þ In the formula: Yij represents the annual water yield; AETij denotes the average annual evapotranspiration; Pi indicates the annual precipitation; ωi is a non-physical, dimensionless parameter; Ri stands for the dryness index, which is also dimensionless; PAWCi refers to the plant-available water content; kij represents the vegetation evapotranspiration coefficient; Z is the coefficient for seasonal factors; MSDi denotes the maximum soil depth; and RD indicates the root depth. The carbon storage formula is as follows [37–39]: Ctot ¼ Cabove þ Cbelow þ Csoil þ Cdead ð6Þ In the formula: Ctot represents the total carbon storage; Cabove denotes the aboveground car- bon storage; Cbelow indicates the belowground carbon storage; Csoil refers to the soil carbon storage; and Cdead stands for the dead organic carbon storage. Habitat quality is calculated as follows [40, 41]: Qij ¼ Hj � 1 Dz ij Dz ij þ k2 ! ð7Þ In the formula: Qij represents habitat quality; Hj denotes habitat suitability; Dij indicates the level of land use pressure; k is the half-saturation constant; and Z is the normalization constant, set to 2.5. The soil retention measurement formula is as follows [42, 43]: SC ¼ R � K � LS � C � P ð8Þ In the formula: SC denotes annual soil retention; R represents the rainfall erosivity factor; K indicates the soil erodibility factor; LS stands for the slope length-gradient factor; C denotes

the cover management factor; P represents the conservation practice factor. Calculation of total ESs. The entropy weight [44] method was used to determine the weight of each ES category (Table 2). These weights were then multiplied by the respective ES values and summed to obtain the total ES value [45, 46]. Table 2. Weights of each ecosystem service category during the study period. Types of ES 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2035 SSP126 2035 SSP245 2035 SSP585 Water yield 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.35 0.34 Soil retention 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.3 0.31 0.32 Habitat quality 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.2 0.21 0.22 0.21 0.2 Carbon storage 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.14 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316605.t002 PLOS ONE Sustainable development simulation under climate change: A spatiotemporal ecosystem services approach PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316605 February 4, 2025 6 / 19