Spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change

This has practical significance for the management of ESs and the optimal allocation of land resources. By revealing the mechanisms through which climate change impacts ESs, the study offers scientific evidence for ecological protection and sustainable development strategies in the region. Additionally, this research can provide a referential framework and methods for regions with similar geographical environments. 2. Materials and methods 2.1. Study area The southeastern Yunnan karst region is located in the southeastern part of Yunnan Province (Fig 1), encompassing 25 counties across four prefectural-level administrative areas: Wenshan Prefecture (entire area), Honghe Prefecture (entire area), Qujing City (Shizong and Luoping counties), and Kunming City (Shilin and Yiliang counties). The region features a complex ter- rain with elevations ranging from 73 to 3056 meters, primarily consisting of mountainous hills and karst landforms with significant topographical relief and steep slopes. The climate is char- acterized by subtropical and temperate plateau monsoon conditions, with ample sunlight, uneven rainfall distribution, and high evaporation rates. Annual average precipitation ranges from 811 to 2000 millimeters, and the long-term average temperature varies between 9.5 to 24.0˚C. The study area is located in the southeastern Yunnan rocky desertification zone, with widespread rocky desertification and potential rocky desertification land. The region faces severe issues of soil erosion, land degradation, and water scarcity, which significantly impact

biodiversity and ecosystem stability. The southern part serves as a border ecological barrier zone, with extensive tropical rainforest coverage, high vegetation density, rich biodiversity, and relatively high ecological quality. Fig 1. Study area. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316605.g001 PLOS ONE Sustainable development simulation under climate change: A spatiotemporal ecosystem services approach PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316605 February 4, 2025 3 / 19