Spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change

challenges and changes [63]. Learning from successful international sustainable development experiences can encourage cooperation and exchange, bringing in advanced management models and technologies to promote regional ecological protection and sustainable develop- ment [64]. 5. Conclusion This study explores the spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ESs in the southeastern Yunnan karst region under the backdrop of climate change. It reveals how LUCs under different scenarios impact ESs. The findings indicate that by 2035, there is a trend of increasing water bodies and construction land, whereas arable land, forests, grasslands, and unused land decrease to varying extents. Under the SSP126 scenario, the protection of arable land and forests is more effective, and the significant increase in water bodies reflects the pro- found impact of climate change on land use patterns. By 2035, water yield and soil retention increase across various scenarios, with the most substantial growth seen under the SSP126 sce- nario. However, carbon storage and habitat quality show a declining trend, especially under the SSP585 scenario, highlighting the combined pressures of human activities and climate change on the ecological environment. The overall SDG index is higher in the southern region and lower in the northern region, indicating an issue of uneven regional development. The changes in the SDG index across different scenarios for 2030 reflect the potential trends in future sustainable development. Author Contributions Conceptualization: Bao Zhou.

Data curation: Bao Zhou. Formal analysis: Bao Zhou, Junsan Zhao, Ying Yin. Funding acquisition: Guoping Chen. Investigation: Bao Zhou, Guoping Chen. Methodology: Bao Zhou. Project administration: Guoping Chen. Resources: Bao Zhou, Guoping Chen. Software: Bao Zhou. Validation: Guoping Chen. Visualization: Bao Zhou, Guoping Chen. Writing – original draft: Bao Zhou. Writing – review & editing: Guoping Chen. References 1. Averchenkova A, Fankhauser S, Finnegan JJ. The influence of climate change advisory bodies on polit- ical debates: evidence from the UK Committee on Climate Change. Clim Policy. 2021; 21(9):1218–33. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2021.1878008 WOS:000615833800001. 2. Whitmarsh L, Poortinga W, Capstick S. Behaviour change to address climate change. Curr Opin Psy- chol. 2021; 42:76–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.04.002 WOS:000700610700014. PMID: 33991862 PLOS ONE Sustainable development simulation under climate change: A spatiotemporal ecosystem services approach PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316605 February 4, 2025 15 / 19