Spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change

From 2000 to 2020, the SDG index gradually decreased in the north while remaining relatively high and increasing annually in the south. This indicates that the southern regions have made some progress in ecological protection and sustainable development. By 2035, under the SSP126 scenario, the SDG index increases in the southern areas, closely associated with the enhancement of ESs, suggesting that a better ecological environment contributes to achieving SDGs. The spatial clustering characteristics caused by climate change not only affect the distri- bution of ESs but also directly relate to the region’s sustainable development level. With chang- ing climate conditions, the southeastern Yunnan karst region needs to focus more on protecting and restoring the local ecological environment to achieve better ESs and improve the SDG index, thereby promoting SDGs. 4.3. Recommendations and perspectives Future research should aim to integrate a broader range of geographic information, remote sensing data, and socioeconomic data to develop more comprehensive models. Additionally, incorporating dynamic monitoring technologies can provide real-time insights into the dynamic characteristics of LUC and ESs. Only through a multi-level and interdisciplinary approach can we gain a deeper understanding of the complex impacts of climate change on regional land use and ESs. Future studies should place greater emphasis on cross-disciplinary data integration and model innovation to support more resilient decision-making. It is also

essential to consider different climate change scenarios and socioeconomic development path- ways to explore the impacts of various policies and management measures on ESs and sustain- able development. Attention should be given to the relationship between ESs and human well- being, with quantitative assessments of the economic, social, and environmental benefits of these services enhancing public awareness and support for ecological protection. Based on research findings, local governments should craft more targeted land use management policies [57], particularly in the conservation of arable land, forests, and grasslands. Enhanced manage- ment of water resources is also crucial to address future challenges posed by climate change. Establishing cross-sector collaboration mechanisms can foster cooperation among various fields, such as environment, agriculture, forestry, and urban planning [58]. This will help cre- ate synergies between different policies and ensure the effective implementation of land use management and ecological protection measures. Promoting an ecological compensation mechanism can encourage local governments and communities to adopt protective measures [59]. Economic incentives can guide farmers and businesses to voluntarily participate in eco- logical conservation activities, such as implementing eco-friendly farming practices, forest conservation, and water resource management projects, ultimately improving the capacity for ES provision [60]. Another important dimension is community participation and localized

governance, which emphasizes grassroots awareness and practices for ecological conservation in order to achieve policy sustainability and broad public support. Specific guidelines and stan- dards should be developed to promote sustainable land use practices, such as crop rotation, intercropping, and agroforestry, to reduce land degradation, enhance soil quality, and increase carbon sequestration capacity [61]. Strengthening environmental education for the public can raise awareness of the importance of ESs. Organizing community activities can encourage public participation in ecological protection and restoration projects, thus fostering a sense of environmental responsibility among local residents [62]. A multidimensional assessment framework that considers ecological, economic, and social factors will provide a more holistic perspective for land use policy formulation. In light of the uncertainties associated with climate change and socioeconomic development, future policies should be designed with greater flexibility and adaptability to respond promptly to emerging PLOS ONE Sustainable development simulation under climate change: A spatiotemporal ecosystem services approach PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316605 February 4, 2025 14 / 19