Spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change

land use patterns. Particularly under the SSP585 scenario, the significant increase in built-up land is driven by accelerated urbanization due to population and economic growth, as well as intensified human activities. This urban expansion often necessitates the conversion of more farmland and natural ecosystems into built-up land, further reducing the areas of farmland and grasslands. This trend is clearly evident in the research findings, highlighting the chal- lenges that exist between economic development and land use sustainability. ES capacities also manifest diverse changes under different scenarios. Regarding water yield, while the total water yield in 2035 increases compared to 2020. This indicates that although climate change may enhance precipitation and water resource availability, the ecological functions of soil and vegetation might be compromised, leading to reduced carbon sequestration and declining habitat quality. It indicates that only through integrated, multidimensional management strat- egies can we effectively address the changes in these ES functions. For example, by enhancing forest management and wetland conservation measures, we can improve regional carbon stor- age capacity while maintaining water and soil functions. The fluctuations in land use and ESs also reflect the effectiveness of policies and manage- ment measures. In the current climate and economic context, formulating and implementing effective land use policies to achieve both ecological and economic benefits is a critical future

research and resolution topic. Effective land management measures can mitigate the adverse effects of climate change to some extent and promote the achievement of SDGs. Future land use policies should fully consider the interactions between climate change, ecological conser- vation, and economic development in order to achieve more sustainable regional development. 4.2. Characteristics of spatial clustering of ES and changes in SDG under climate change In the southeastern Yunnan karst region, ESs exhibit notable spatial clustering characteristics under the influence of climate change. Particularly in the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, hot- spots are primarily concentrated in the vegetation-rich Yunling Mountains and Xishuang- banna. This phenomenon of spatial agglomeration not only reflects the influence of natural conditions but also highlights the effectiveness and specificity of regional policy measures. Such spatial disparities indicate that differentiated policy strategies should be adopted for eco- logical conservation. In the context of limited resources, prioritizing the protection of areas with high ES supply and high biodiversity would be a more effective resource allocation strat- egy. The local ecological environment and climate conditions directly impact the spatial distri- bution of ESs. With rising temperatures and increased precipitation due to climate change, ecological restoration has been observed in the southern and southeastern regions, leading to significant improvements in habitat quality and water availability. Compared to the northern

areas, the southern regions exhibit greater clustering of ESs due to higher precipitation and dense vegetation cover. Additionally, abundant rainfall conditions enhance biodiversity, which in turn strengthens ecosystem stability and service functions. The impact of human activities varies significantly across different regions. In northern areas like Kunming and Chuxiong, rapid urbanization and the expansion of build-up land and farmland have reduced the area of ecological land, diminishing the capacity to supply ESs. This contrasts sharply with the southern regions, where relatively lower human interference has preserved a good ecologi- cal environment, promoting the effective provision of ESs. By 2035, under the SSP585 scenario, cold spots are concentrated in cities like Kunming and Honghe, indicating that the intensity of human activities significantly affects local ecological quality. Changes in the SDG index also reflect these spatial clustering characteristics of ESs. PLOS ONE Sustainable development simulation under climate change: A spatiotemporal ecosystem services approach PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316605 February 4, 2025 13 / 19