Spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change

farmland, which heavily impact the ecological environment and result in an aggregation of cold spots. 3.4. Analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution of SDGs based on ESs Based on four categories of ESs and referencing Fig 7, which illustrates the relationship between ESs and SDGs, these ESs collectively support 12 SDGs. By spatially quantifying these 12 goals, an overall SDG score was obtained. Spatially, the SDG index in the study area is gen- erally lower in the north and higher in the south, particularly in the southeast. Between 2000 and 2020, low SDG value regions in the central-western part of the study area gradually con- centrated, while high-value regions in the east increased annually. Compared to 2020, under the SSP126 scenario in 2030, the SDG index in the southern part of the study area increases, while it decreases in the eastern part. Under the SSP245 scenario in 2030, the SDG index sig- nificantly rises from central to eastern regions. By 2030, under the SSP585 scenario, the overall SDG index for the study area shows a marked increase. 4. Discussion 4.1. Analysis of changes in LUC and various types of ES under climate change Against the backdrop of climate change, the land use types in the karst region of southeastern Yunnan have undergone significant changes, alongside varying trends in ESs. According to simulation results, the areas of farmland, forest, and grassland have generally decreased, while water and construction land have increased. This change in land use is not only a result of cli-

mate and economic development but also reflects a response to land use policies and manage- ment measures. This suggests that we need to consider the long-term impacts of climate change on land sustainability and ecological capacity in a more systematic way. Policymakers should prioritize data-driven approaches to dynamic land planning in order to balance devel- opment with environmental protection. Several key factors drive these changes. Climate change-induced temperature rise and precipitation pattern shifts directly influence regional Fig 7. Spatio-temporal changes in SDG under multi-scenario spatio-temporal scenarios. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316605.g007 PLOS ONE Sustainable development simulation under climate change: A spatiotemporal ecosystem services approach PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316605 February 4, 2025 12 / 19