Spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change

By 2035, total ESs (Fig 6) have improved compared to 2020 across the three SSP scenarios. The highest values are located in the west and progressively decrease moving eastward. All three SSP scenarios have Moran’s I indices greater than 0, demonstrating notable spatial clus- tering. In the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, hot spots have significantly increased from 2020, forming prominent clusters. Cold spots are mainly found in the central Yunnan urban areas. For the SSP585 scenario, hot spots are more scattered, showing a fragmented spatial pattern without large continuous areas. This scenario features marked urban expansion and increased Fig 5. Distribution of ESs and hot and cold spots during the historical period. Notes: -3: Cold spot—99% Confidence; -2: Cold spot—95% Confidence; -1:Cold spot—90% Confidence; 0: No significant; 1: Hot spot—99% Confidence; 2: Hot spot—95% Confidence;3:Hot spot—90% Confidence, the same as below. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316605.g005 Fig 6. Distribution of total ESs and hotspots under future climate change. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316605.g006 PLOS ONE Sustainable development simulation under climate change: A spatiotemporal ecosystem services approach PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316605 February 4, 2025 11 / 19