Spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change

RESEARCH ARTICLE Spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change Bao Zhou1,2, Guoping ChenID2*, Junsan Zhao2, Ying Yin1 1 College of Electronic and Information Engineering, West Anhui University, Luan, China, 2 Faculty of Land Resource Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, China * chenguoping@kust.edu.cn Abstract This study explores the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of ecosystem services (ESs) in the karst region of southeastern Yunnan under the backdrop of climate change. The study innovatively calculates the sustainable development goals (SDG) index based on ecosystem services (ESs). It employs the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to simulate future land use changes (LUCs) and uses the integrated valuation of eco- system services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model to assess ESs under different scenarios. This research systematically evaluates the ESs and SDGs in karst regions within the context of climate change. The results indicate that: (1) Under all three scenarios in 2035, the trend of LUCs in the karst area of southeastern Yunnan is highly consistent, though the intensity and spatial configuration vary significantly. The least reduction in arable land area occurs under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 126 scenario, while water bodies and construction land show varying degrees of increase; (2) Regarding ESs, both water yield and soil retention exhibit an increasing trend across all scenarios by 2035, with the most

notable rise under SSP126. Conversely, habitat quality and carbon storage show a decline, with the smallest decrease also under SSP126; (3) Analyzing the SDG index, the overall value is low in 2020. In future scenarios, the SDG index increases in the southern part while decreasing in the eastern part, indicating significant differences in regional sustainable development potential. Hotspots under SSP126 and SSP245 are concentrated in the densely vegetated southwest and eastern edge areas, while cold spots are mainly found in the heavily human-impacted central Yunnan urban agglomeration and Wenshan City. This study systematically explores for the first time the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESs in the karst region of southeastern Yunnan under different climate scenarios. It provides scientific evidence for regional ecological protection and land use planning. 1. Introduction Climate change represents one of the primary environmental challenges faced by global eco- systems [1]. In recent years, the ecological shifts triggered by global climate change have PLOS ONE PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316605 February 4, 2025 1 / 19 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 OPEN ACCESS Citation: Zhou B, Chen G, Zhao J, Yin Y (2025) Spatiotemporal simulation of sustainable development based on ecosystem services under climate change. PLoS ONE 20(2): e0316605. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316605 Editor: Yijun Shi, Zhejiang A&F University, CHINA Received: August 7, 2024 Accepted: December 14, 2024 Published: February 4, 2025

Copyright: © 2025 Zhou et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data Availability Statement: The data underpinning this study are sourced from reliable databases. (1) Land use data and NDVI data are obtained from the Resource and Environment Science and Data Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (https://www.resdc.cn/), specifically including the China Multi-period Land Use Remote Sensing Monitoring Dataset (CNLUCC). This dataset covers the spatial domain of China, with data formats in both vector and raster, a spatial resolution of 30 meters, categorized under China’s land use remote sensing monitoring data, and identified by DOI 10.12078/2018070201. Additionally, the China 30-meter Annual Maximum