Predicting the potential global distribution of Ixodes pacificus under climate change

The range of suitable areas for I. pacificus under future climatic conditions According to the prediction results of the Maxent model, and visualize it using ArcGIS 10.8. Under future climatic conditions from 2021 to 2100. The suitable areas for I. pacificus in the world are similar to the near current distribution, but there are also certain differences, and the overall trend tends to shrink (Figs 9–12). Under the climatic conditions of shared socio-economic pathway 1–2.6, the suitable areas of I. pacificus showed an expansion phenomenon from 2041 to 2060 compared to the near current climatic conditions, with an area change rate of 1%. In other time periods of the SSP1-2.6 scenario, as well as in the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from 2021 to 2100, the potential global suitable areas of the I. pacificus is smaller than that of the near current climate scenario, with an area change rate of -25.70% -1.66%. In the SSP1-2.6 scenario mode between 2041 and 2060, the potential global suitable areas of I. pacificus reached a maximum area of 12.17 × 106 km2. In the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, as time goes on, the global habitat range of the Pacific tick gradually decreases (Table 3). In the SSP5-8.5 scenario mode from 2081 to 2100, the potential global suitable areas of the I. pacifi- cus decreases by 3.10 × 106 km2. The global potential habitat area of the I. pacificus is the smallest, about 8.95 × 106 km2. Fig 4. Average omission and predicted area for I. pacificus. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0309367.g004 PLOS ONE

Prediction of the distribution of Ixodes pacificus PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0309367 August 27, 2024 8 / 18