Predicting the potential global distribution of Ixodes pacificus under climate change

environmental data of distribution points, there were 4 coordinate positions where environ- mental data was not collected and were deleted, leaving 563 coordinate information (Fig 1). After analyzing the bioclimate and environmental variables using the Jackknife method, cli- mate factors with a contribution rate of � 1.0% were selected, and Pearson correlation analysis was performed on the selected climate factors using R 4.0.3 (Fig 2). Finally, five climate factors were obtained for the model (Table 2). MaxEnt model parameter settings and accuracy evaluation Optimize the model parameter settings using the ENMeval data package of R 4.0.3 software. The future combinations and regularization multiplier of the maximum entropy model in this study were LQHPT and 0.5 (Fig 3). In the MaxEnt model, the average omission rate of the test set is basically consistent with that of the training set (Fig 4). Under the current climate sce- nario conditions, the AUC value of the MaxEnt model is 0.978 (Fig 5), and the evaluation effect is "excellent". The model has high accuracy. The relationship between the distribution of I. pacificus and the environmental variables We used the jackknife method to analyze the most important five variables that impact the dis- tribution of I. pacificus. The results showed that Tmin2 (Minimum temperature of February) provided more effective information for the distribution of I. pacificus, and provided more information that was not included in other environmental variables, followed by Prec1 (Pre-

cipitation in January) (Fig 6). The response plot line between environmental variables and the probability of I. pacificus shows the average of 20 repeated runs of the model, and the blue mar- gin shows the ± SD calculated after 20 repeated runs (Fig 7). The results show that the suitable Fig 1. Current distribution of I. pacificus in the world. Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0309367.g001 PLOS ONE Prediction of the distribution of Ixodes pacificus PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0309367 August 27, 2024 5 / 18