Predicting the potential global distribution of Ixodes pacificus under climate change

information for the changing risks of vector-borne diseases in the future, and provide refer- ences for public health early warning and control of vector-borne diseases. Conclusions We found that the Maxent model predicted potentially suitable areas of I. pacificus under near current and future climatic conditions based on the existing distribution of I. pacificus, which may enable the precise identification of important environmental variables driving the current and future potential geographic distribution of I. pacificus, and this was derived from tempera- ture and precipitation as they are the important variables affecting the survival probability. Under future climate conditions, the total suitable area will decrease and the distribution area will shrink. But with global economic integration, I. pacificus will have more opportunities to be carried to many countries. This is of great guiding significance for improving the awareness of prevention in areas where I. pacificus is at risk of invasion, thus providing a theoretical basis for early prevention and control in these areas. Supporting information S1 File. The coordinates of all I. pacificus collected globally. (XLSX) S2 File. The corresponding value of the response curve of Prec1 to the distribution proba- bility of I. pacificus. (XLSX) S3 File. The corresponding value of the response curve of Tmin2 to the distribution proba- bility of I. pacificus. (XLSX) Table 3. Current and future suitable area for I. pacificus across the world under different climatic conditions (×106 km2).

Climate Scenario Period Less Suitable Areas Moderately Suitable Areas Highly Suitable Areas Total Area Area Change Area Chang Ratio (%) current 1970–2000 8.93 2.43 0.69 12.05 0.00 SSP1-2.6 2021–2040 8.49 2.20 0.33 11.02 -1.03 -8.54 2041–2060 9.45 2.06 0.66 12.17 0.12 1.00 2061–2080 8.49 2.23 0.73 11.45 -0.60 -4.98 2081–2100 8.33 2.06 0.67 11.06 -0.99 -8.21 SSP2-4.5 2021–2040 8.34 2.67 0.59 11.60 -0.45 -3.73 2041–2060 8.36 1.71 0.56 10.63 -1.42 -11.77 2061–2080 9.25 2.05 0.55 11.85 -0.20 -1.66 2081–2100 7.40 2.17 0.66 10.23 -1.82 -15.09 SSP3-7.0 2021–2040 8.52 2.22 0.67 11.41 -0.64 -5.31 2041–2060 8.19 2.14 0.64 10.97 -1.08 -8.96 2061–2080 7.64 1.46 0.44 9.54 -1.43 -11.86 2081–2100 8.15 1.70 0.45 10.30 -1.75 -14.51 SSP5-8.5 2021–2040 8.45 2.44 0.52 11.41 -0.64 -5.31 2041–2060 8.99 1.91 0.50 11.40 -0.65 -5.39 2061–2080 8.18 1.75 0.47 10.40 -1.65 -13.68 2081–2100 7.09 1.38 0.48 8.95 -3.10 -25.70 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0309367.t003 PLOS ONE Prediction of the distribution of Ixodes pacificus PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0309367 August 27, 2024 15 / 18