Predicting the potential global distribution of Ixodes pacificus under climate change

I. pacificus was lost in the western region of the United States [21]. MacDonald et al. (2018) found that the future habitat and suitable microclimate of I. pacificus will decrease overall, while the future habitat of Dermacentor variabilis and Ixodes scapularis will expand. The obvi- ous differences in tick species distribution observed in this study indicate that global changes will not produce consistent results on vector-borne disease risk [22]. Alkishe et al. (2021), Hahn et al. (2021) and Witmer et al. (2022) showed that the distribution of I. pacificus is pre- dicted to change under a warming climate, and the distribution of ticks in the western United States may expand to high elevations in the mountains of California, Oregon, and Washington. It extends north along the Pacific coast of British Columbia to the southernmost tip of Alaska, but in a warmer climate, the southernmost tip of California (including the mountains of the southern coast and the southern interior) and inland areas of Arizona and Utah will be inhos- pitable to I. pacificus [23–25]. These related studies are basically consistent with the results of this study. The results of this study show that I. pacificus will share different social and eco- nomic paths in the future. Compared with the suitable areas obtained by the current climate, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario model, the distribution range of I. pacificus will expand from 2041 to 2060, but the change is small (1%). Under other climate scenarios, the distribution range of

I. pacificus showed a shrinking phenomenon. Under SSP5-8.5 scenario, the distribution range of I. pacificus decreased by 25.7% from 2081 to 2100. With the development of global economy and trade, human activities are becoming more and more frequent, which have an impact on Fig 10. The potential distribution of suitable areas for I. pacificus around the world under the climatic conditions of SSP2-4.5. (a)2021-2040; (b)2041-2060; (c)2061-2080; (d)2081-2100. Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0309367.g010 PLOS ONE Prediction of the distribution of Ixodes pacificus PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0309367 August 27, 2024 12 / 18