Current food trade helps mitigate future climate change impacts in lower-income nations
pmc-PMC11698460.pdf · Phiên bản 1 · 16 trang
8. Baker JS, Havlı´k P, Beach R, Leclère D, Schmid E, Valin H, et al. Evaluating the effects of climate change on US agricultural systems: sensitivity to regional impact and trade expansion scenarios. Envi- ron Res Lett. 2018 Jun; 13(6):064019. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac1c2 PMID: 32153649 9. Chen B, Villoria NB. Climate shocks, food price stability and international trade: evidence from 76 maize markets in 27 net-importing countries. Environ Res Lett. 2019 Jan; 14(1):014007. 10. Bren d’Amour C, Anderson W. International trade and the stability of food supplies in the Global South. Environ Res Lett. 2020 Jun 23; 15(7):074005. 11. Hedlund J, Carlsen H, Croft S, West C, Bodin O¨ , Stokeld E, et al. Impacts of climate change on global food trade networks. Environ Res Lett. 2022 Dec; 17(12):124040. 12. Reserves Marchand P. and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks. Environ Res Lett. 2016;12. 13. Puma MJ, Bose S, Chon SY, Cook BI. Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system. Envi- ron Res Lett. 2015 Feb 1; 10(2):024007. 14. Heslin A, Puma MJ, Marchand P, Carr JA, Dell’Angelo J, D’Odorico P, et al. Simulating the Cascading Effects of an Extreme Agricultural Production Shock: Global Implications of a Contemporary US Dust Bowl Event. Front Sustain Food Syst [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Apr 7]; 4. Available from: https://www. frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2020.00026/full. 15. Gephart JA. Vulnerability to shocks in the global seafood trade network. Environ Res Lett. 2016;11.
16. Distefano T, Laio F, Ridolfi L, Schiavo S. Shock transmission in the International Food Trade Network. Brunori G, editor. PLoS ONE. 2018 Aug 8; 13(8):e0200639. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone. 0200639 PMID: 30089103 17. Carter TR, Benzie M, Campiglio E, Carlsen H, Fronzek S, Hilde´ n M, et al. A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change. Global Environmental Change. 2021 Jul 1; 69:102307. 18. Challinor AJ, Adger WN, Benton TG. Climate risks across borders and scales. Nature Clim Change. 2017 Sep; 7(9):621–3. 19. Baldos ULC, Hertel TW, Moore FC. Understanding the Spatial Distribution of Welfare Impacts of Global Warming on Agriculture and its Drivers. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 2019 Oct; 101 (5):1455–72. 20. Christensen P, Gillingham K, Nordhaus W. Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth. Pro- ceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2018 May 22; 115(21):5409–14. https://doi.org/10. 1073/pnas.1713628115 PMID: 29760089 21. Hausfather Z, Marvel K, Schmidt GA, Nielsen-Gammon JW, Zelinka M. Climate simulations: recognize the ‘hot model’ problem. Nature. 2022 May; 605(7908):26–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022- 01192-2 PMID: 35508771 22. Kastner T. Tracing distant environmental impacts of agricultural products from a consumer perspective. Ecological Economics. 2011;9. 23. Schwarzmueller F, Kastner T. Agricultural trade and its impacts on cropland use and the global loss of species habitat. Sustain Sci [Internet]. 2022 May 12 [cited 2022 Jun 24]; Available from: https://doi.org/
10.1007/s11625-022-01138-7. 24. Ja¨ germeyr J, Mu¨ ller C, Ruane AC, Elliott J, Balkovic J, Castillo O, et al. Climate impacts on global agri- culture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models. Nat Food. 2021 Nov; 2(11):873– 85. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y PMID: 37117503 25. Monfreda C, Ramankutty N, Foley JA. Farming the planet: 2. Geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000: GLOBAL CROP AREAS AND YIELDS IN 2000. Global Biogeochem Cycles. 2008 Mar; 22(1):n/a-n/a. 26. Laber M, Klimek P, Bruckner M, Yang L, Thurner S. Shock propagation from the Russia–Ukraine con- flict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability. Nat Food. 2023 Jun; 4(6):508–17. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00771-4 PMID: 37322302 27. Lange S. Trend-preserving bias adjustment and statistical downscaling with ISIMIP3BASD (v1.0). Geoscientific Model Development. 2019 Jul 17; 12(7):3055–70. 28. Kastner T, Chaudhary A, Gingrich S, Marques A, Persson UM, Bidoglio G, et al. Global agricultural trade and land system sustainability: Implications for ecosystem carbon storage, biodiversity, and human nutrition. One Earth. 2021 Oct 22; 4(10):1425–43. 29. Dalin C, Wada Y, Kastner T, Puma MJ. Groundwater depletion embedded in international food trade. Nature. 2017 Mar; 543(7647):700–4. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature21403 PMID: 28358074 30. Agricultural Pendrill F. and forestry trade drives large share of tropical deforestation emissions. Global
Environmental Change. 2019;10. PLOS ONE Current food trade helps mitigate future climate change impacts in lower-income nations PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0314722 January 3, 2025 15 / 16