Current food trade helps mitigate future climate change impacts in lower-income nations

S1 Table. List of ISO 3 country codes. (XLSX) S2 Table. Summary of variables used in the methods section of the main text. (XLSX) S1 Dataset. Contains the data used to conduct investigation and create figures. (XLSX) Acknowledgments We would like to thank Frances Moore and Sophia Murphy for engaging in early discussions and providing valuable comments on this project. Author Contributions Conceptualization: Kushank Bajaj, Thomas Kastner, Thomas W. Hertel, Navin Ramankutty. Data curation: Kushank Bajaj. Formal analysis: Kushank Bajaj. Funding acquisition: Navin Ramankutty. Investigation: Kushank Bajaj, Thomas Kastner, Jonas Ja¨germeyr, Christoph Mu¨ller, Florian Schwarzmu¨ller, Navin Ramankutty. Methodology: Kushank Bajaj, Thomas Kastner, Thomas W. Hertel, Navin Ramankutty. Project administration: Kushank Bajaj, Navin Ramankutty. Resources: Kushank Bajaj. Software: Kushank Bajaj. Supervision: Navin Ramankutty. Visualization: Kushank Bajaj, Zia Mehrabi. Writing – original draft: Kushank Bajaj. Writing – review & editing: Kushank Bajaj, Zia Mehrabi, Thomas Kastner, Jonas Ja¨germeyr, Christoph Mu¨ller, Thomas W. Hertel, Navin Ramankutty. References 1. Hertel TW. Viewpoint_ Climate impacts on agriculture_ Searching for keys under the streetlight. Food Policy. 2020;12. 2. Davis KF, Downs S, Gephart JA. Towards food supply chain resilience to environmental shocks. Nature Food. 2021 Jan; 2(1):54–65. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-020-00196-3 PMID: 37117650 3. D’Odorico P, Carr JA, Laio F, Ridolfi L, Vandoni S. Feeding humanity through global food trade:

D’ODORICO ET AL. Earth’s Future. 2014 Sep; 2(9):458–69. 4. Wood SA, Smith MR, Fanzo J, Remans R, DeFries RS. Trade and the equitability of global food nutrient distribution. Nature Sustainability. 2018 Jan; 1(1):34–7. 5. Janssens C, Havlı´k P, Krisztin T, Baker J, Frank S, Hasegawa T, et al. Global hunger and climate change adaptation through international trade. Nat Clim Chang. 2020 Sep; 10(9):829–35. https://doi. org/10.1038/s41558-020-0847-4 PMID: 33564324 6. Headey D. Rethinking the global food crisis: The role of trade shocks. Food Policy. 2011 Apr 1; 36 (2):136–46. 7. Martin W, Anderson K. Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms. Ameri- can Journal of Agricultural Economics. 2012; 94(2):422–7. PLOS ONE Current food trade helps mitigate future climate change impacts in lower-income nations PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0314722 January 3, 2025 14 / 16