Joint-outcome prediction markets for climate risks

Financial System (NGFS). Likelihoods which are the product of the collective intelligence of diverse experts, could help anchor the debate surrounding scenarios both for policy making and the disclosure of climate risks, which is increasingly expected of organizations. Implied probabilities of emissions pathways would be a valuable reference for organisations wishing to Fig 3. The evolution of the marginal price distributions for UK average daily high temperature and monthly rainfall for the markets covering April to September 2018. All the markets opened on 12th March 2018. The markets for April and May were closed for trading on 15th May and 15th June respectively, after the Met Office had published the official figures (the “actual” denoted by the red dots). The markets for June to September were closed on the last day of the relevant month, before publication of the official number. The green lines show the mean and standard deviation for the relevant month calculated using 1910–2017 data. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0309164.g003 PLOS ONE Joint-outcome prediction markets for climate risks PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0309164 August 30, 2024 11 / 14