Declining lake ice in response to climate change can impact spending for local communities

restaurants. The shift towards water-based activities can also lead to increased investment in infrastructure necessary to support these activities, such as boat ramps, docks, and hospitality amenities. Previous work has identified potential economic benefits of climate change, such as increased agriculture production [56], greater recreation activities in the arctic [57, 58], and benefits for the wind energy industry [59]. For instance, reduced sea ice has been suggested to increase the activity of vessels for fishing, cruises, or cargo [60, 61], and these patterns will likely also be reflected in large freshwater lakes (e.g., the Great Lakes). However, the benefits of climate change are complex and likely to disrupt the stability of many communities adjacent to lakes that previously froze. While ice-based activities could be moved to lakes that are con- tinuing to freeze (e.g., higher latitudes or altitudes), the infrastructure might not exist in the new locations to support either the activities or the residents. Geo-political borders may fur- ther complicate the movement of ice-based activities as regional or national governments have different requirements, incentives, and infrastructure. Adaptations will be required for com- munities to continue to deliver activities, such as replacing snowmobiles with boats [62]. Gov- ernments will likely need to support communities undergoing transition in spending from loss of lake ice especially since these communities are already receiving less income from declining

cover. The uncertainty for lakes around “will it, won’t it” freeze could also prevent investment into these communities as lakes may not freeze consistently or be safe enough to support ice- activities, but freeze often enough that lakes in warmer climates may be more appealing for open-water activities. Ultimately, the shift away from ice-based activities presents an opportu- nity for new growth and development in water-based activities, but the loss of stable revenue and transitionary costs will diminish some of the potential benefits. The loss of ice has profound implications for water quality both within the winter season and across seasons [63]. For example, under-ice chlorophyll concentrations and primary pro- duction may increase with decreased ice duration [64, 65]. Earlier ice-off contributes to a lon- ger open-water season, earlier, longer, and stronger stratification [14] and warmer water temperatures [66, 67], with consequences to declining hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations [68], reduced oxythermal habitat for freshwater fishes [69], amongst a broad suite of implica- tions on freshwater quality and availability [2]. Thus, while our study explored only the spend- ing impacts of declining ice in the months where the lake is expected to freeze (e.g., winter), there are likely costs that will extend into the summer months. Socio-economic implications of lake ice loss For many residents, their relationship with lake ice extends well beyond a source of income and is an integral component of their cultural identity (Magnuson and Lathrop 2014). People

have used lake ice for ceremonial activities, artistic inspiration, education, and recreation [For a review, see 3]. There is a connection between people and lake ice that extends beyond eco- nomic value to include childhood memories at winter ice festivals, an integral part of the diet (i.e., ice fishing) for some communities [70], and a significant cultural value [3, 18]. For indige- nous communities, the loss lake ice directly impacts food security, creating greater uncertainty around the location, abundance, and composition of wildlife [4, 57, 62]. For example, loss of lake ice can impact reindeer husbandry as the caribou alter their migration patterns [71]. Ice- based activities play an important role in the social fabric of these communities, providing opportunities for socializing, bonding, and intergenerational knowledge sharing (Magnuson and Lathrop 2014). The loss of lake ice thus not only threatens the financial stability of north- ern communities but also their cultural identity. Anthropogenically driven climate change has already begun impacting the physical charac- teristics of our planet [72, 73] and lake ice is no exception [74, 75]. We observed significant PLOS ONE Financial loss of declining lake ice PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0299937 July 5, 2024 9 / 15