Declining lake ice in response to climate change can impact spending for local communities

2. Woolway RI, Huang L, Sharma S, Lee S-S, Rodgers KB, Timmermann A. Lake Ice Will Be Less Safe for Recreation and Transportation Under Future Warming. Earth’s Futur. 2022; 10: e2022EF002907. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002907 3. Knoll LB, Sharma S, Denfeld BA, Flaim G, Hori Y, Magnuson JJ, et al. Consequences of lake and river ice loss on cultural ecosystem services. Limnol Oceanogr Lett. 2019; 4: 119–131. https://doi.org/10. 1002/lol2.10116 4. Laidler GJ, Ford JD, Gough WA, Ikummaq T, Gagnon AS, Kowal S, et al. Travelling and hunting in a changing Arctic: assessing Inuit vulnerability to sea ice change in Igloolik, Nunavut. Clim Change. 2009; 94: 363–397. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9512-z 5. Sharma S, Blagrave K, Watson SR, O’Reilly CM, Batt R, Magnuson JJ, et al. Increased winter drown- ings in ice-covered regions with warmer winters. PLoS One. 2020; 15: e0241222. Available: https://doi. org/10.1371/journal.pone.0241222 PMID: 33206655 6. Stern N, Stern NH. The economics of climate change: the Stern review. cambridge University press; 2007. 7. Tol RSJ. The Economic Effects of Climate Change. J Econ Perspect. 2009; 23: 29–51. https://doi.org/ 10.1257/jep.23.2.29 8. Diagne C, Leroy B, Vaissière A-C, Gozlan RE, Roiz D, Jarić I, et al. High and rising economic costs of biological invasions worldwide. Nature. 2021; 592: 571–576. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021- 03405-6 PMID: 33790468 9. Downing JA, Polasky S, Olmstead SM, Newbold SC. Protecting local water quality has global benefits.

Nat Commun. 2021; 12: 2709. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22836-3 PMID: 33976174 10. Tol RSJ. The economic impact of climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries. Clim Change. 2013; 117: 795–808. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0613-3 11. Lee H, Calvin K, Dasgupta D, Krinner G, Mukherji A, Thorne P, et al. IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Lee H and Romero J (eds.)]. IPC. 2023. 12. Cook BI, Mankin JS, Anchukaitis KJ. Climate change and drought: From past to future. Curr Clim Chang Reports. 2018; 4: 164–179. 13. Allen CD, Macalady AK, Chenchouni H, Bachelet D, McDowell N, Vennetier M, et al. A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. For Ecol Manage. 2010; 259: 660–684. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.001 14. Woolway RI, Sharma S, Weyhenmeyer GA, Debolskiy A, Golub M, Mercado-Bettı´n D, et al. Phenologi- cal shifts in lake stratification under climate change. Nat Commun. 2021; 12: 2318. https://doi.org/10. 1038/s41467-021-22657-4 PMID: 33875656 15. Li C, Stevens B, Marotzke J. Eurasian winter cooling in the warming hiatus of 1998–2012. Geophys Res Lett. 2015; 42: 8131–8139. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065327 16. Scalzitti J, Strong C, Kochanski A. Climate change impact on the roles of temperature and precipitation

in western U.S. snowpack variability. Geophys Res Lett. 2016; 43: 5361–5369. https://doi.org/10.1002/ 2016GL068798 17. Magnuson JJ, Robertson DM, Benson BJ, Wynne RH, Livingstone DM, Arai T, et al. Historical Trends in Lake and River Ice Cover in the Northern Hemisphere. Science (80-). 2000; 289: 1743 LP– 1746. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5485.1743 PMID: 10976066 18. Sharma S, Magnuson JJ, Batt RD, Winslow LA, Korhonen J, Aono Y. Direct observations of ice season- ality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years. Sci Rep. 2016; 6: 25061. https://doi.org/10. 1038/srep25061 PMID: 27113125 19. Sharma S, Blagrave K, Filazzola A, Imrit MA, Hendricks Franssen H-J. Forecasting the Permanent Loss of Lake Ice in the Northern Hemisphere Within the 21st Century. Geophys Res Lett. 2021; 48. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091108 20. Vavrus SJ, Wynne RH, Foley JA. Measuring the sensitivity of southern Wisconsin lake ice to climate variations and lake depth using a numerical model. Limnol Oceanogr. 1996; 41: 822–831. https://doi. org/10.4319/lo.1996.41.5.0822 21. Brown LC, Duguay CR. The response and role of ice cover in lake-climate interactions. Prog Phys Geogr Earth Environ. 2010; 34: 671–704. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133310375653 22. Filazzola A, Blagrave K, Imrit M, Sharma S. Climate change drives increases in extreme events for lake ice in the Northern Hemisphere. Geophys Res Lett. 2020; 47: e2020GL089608. 23. Magnuson JJ, Lathrop RC. Lake ice: Winter, beauty, value, changes, and a threatened future. Lakeline. 2014; 18–27. PLOS ONE

Financial loss of declining lake ice PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0299937 July 5, 2024 12 / 15