Declining lake ice in response to climate change can impact spending for local communities

RESEARCH ARTICLE Declining lake ice in response to climate change can impact spending for local communities Alessandro FilazzolaID1,2*, Mohammad Arshad Imrit1, Andrew Fleck3, Richard Iestyn Woolway4, Sapna Sharma1 1 Department of Biology, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, 2 Apex Resource Management Solutions, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, 3 Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, 4 School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, Menai Bridge, Anglesey, Wales * afilazzo@uwo.ca Abstract Lake ice is an important socio-economic resource that is threatened by climate change. The cover and duration of lake ice are expected to decline as air temperatures warm in the com- ing decades, disrupting a previously reliable source of income for many activities dependent on lake ice. The economic consequences of climate-induced lake ice loss remain unex- plored, creating a significant research gap. The purpose of this study was to quantify the monetary spending associated with lake ice and how climate change may impact that value. Using a series of General Circulation Models (GCMs), greenhouse gas emissions scenar- ios, and models for lake ice cover, we predicted changes in lake ice by the end of the 21st century for the Northern Hemisphere. We also synthesized examples of spending associ- ated with lake ice activities and discussed the potential implications expected with declining ice cover. We found that lake ice will decrease in area by 44,000–177,000 km2 and shorten

in duration by 13–43 days by 2100. Using 31 examples of revenue from lake ice, we found that lake ice generates spending of over USD 2.04 billion to local communities and econo- mies. We also found that countries predicted to experience the greatest ice loss by the end of the century are those that currently have the largest GDP, highest greenhouse gas emis- sions, and are most dependent on freshwater withdrawal. Our findings confirm predicted losses in lake ice that are expected because of climate change and quantify some of the potential consequences for local communities. Here we highlight lake ice as another casu- alty of human-caused climate change that will have profound socio-economic implications. Introduction Natural ecosystems provide a suite of services in support of human well-being and the global economy. Freshwater lakes regularly provide a resource for fishing, potable water, and recrea- tional activities. In winter, the ice on freshwater lakes is an important cultural and economic resource for many communities. For example, the loss of ice can delay the construction of PLOS ONE PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0299937 July 5, 2024 1 / 15 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 OPEN ACCESS Citation: Filazzola A, Imrit MA, Fleck A, Woolway RI, Sharma S (2024) Declining lake ice in response to climate change can impact spending for local communities. PLoS ONE 19(7): e0299937. https:// doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0299937 Editor: Zaher Mundher Yaseen, KFUPM: King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals, SAUDI ARABIA

Received: July 13, 2023 Accepted: February 20, 2024 Published: July 5, 2024 Copyright: © 2024 Filazzola et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data Availability Statement: Data for all ice projections using different lake models, global circulation models, and representative concentration pathways are available at https://doi. org/10.48364/ISIMIP.931371. All code for data analysis and visualization was produced in R Version 4.0.2 and is available at https://zenodo.org/ doi/10.5281/zenodo.10722790. Funding: Funding for this research was provided by York University Research Chair program, Ontario Ministry of Innovation Early Researcher