New records and modelling the impacts of climate change on the black-tailed marmosets

did this for the present and for the two future climate change scenarios. All maps were edited with ArcGIS 10.5 software. Results In total, 121 individuals of M. nigriceps were recorded across the 14 field locations studied (Fig 2 and S2 Table in S1 File). To this were added five records available from the literature. How- ever, due to the close proximity of the locations from which the occurrence records were obtained, we had only seven spatially unique occurrence points, that is, distributed individu- ally in 10kmx10km each side cells to generate the models. The new set of records, obtained for the species in the current study, reveal a range that is far more extensive than known previously, occupying an area from the mouth of the Ji- Parana´/Machado river to its headwaters and west of the upper Roosevelt river (S2 Table in S1 File). This, limited to the south by a non-forested grassland-covered plateau. The conducted ecological niche modeling analysis performed better than random (p> 0.0001). Overall, ENM indicates that, under the current climate scenario, the area of environmental suitability for the species occupies a large swathe of the neotropics (Fig 3), with models indicating that the AES for the species occurs both in the original area of occurrence, and in the region covered by the new records presented in the current study (Fig 3). Based on projections for 2070 using cur- rently predicted climate change scenarios, the species will lose 100% of AES in its historically- known distribution under all run scenarios. Under SSP2-4.5, the most optimistic scenario, the

Fig 2. Analyzed skins. Road-kill derived specimens deposited in the Mastozoologia collection, CELBE Pantanal, and analysed for the current study (Photo: O. Silva- Diogo). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0256270.g002 PLOS ONE Modeling of Mico nigriceps PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0256270 September 7, 2021 7 / 14