New records and modelling the impacts of climate change on the black-tailed marmosets

Although climate change may seem to be a distant threat, the pressure from human activi- ties may lead to the end of the occurrence of M. nigriceps, and many associated species, in the region in a very short period of time, and in a few decades they will be able to overcome the impacts of deforestation [54]. Climate change is an additional impact on this primate, as well as other species, in a region already under severe anthropic pressure. Furthermore, despite the conservation potential the protected areas represent [55], our projections for the two future cli- mate change scenarios considered indicates that the environmental suitability for the species in both these areas will decrease. This may be related to the intensification of the effects of cli- mate change in the southern part of the Amazon [34]. This demonstrates that not even the presence of protected areas will be sufficient to effectively conserve this species, since human actions increasingly threaten the integrity of the biodiversity they currently protect. We suggest that M. nigriceps be a co-beneficiary in the case of conservation of carbon stocks, since the stimulus will occur in the conservation of Protected Areas and priority areas on private lands. This will be most pronounced in the case of forest restoration in regions with potential distribution of the species in the south of the species distribution, where the greatest loss of habitat is concentrated. However, as has been shown analytically [56] prioritizing the

carbon stock alone does not meet the conservation goals of a species. This suggests that, to achieve these goals, investments must simultaneously follow the objectives of conservation of the species and conservation of carbon stocks. Conclusion Our work demonstrates the need for a broad sampling of species occurrence sites in order to better understand species distribution, as this allows for more accurate model calibration, which is useful to better plan species conservation strategies. In addition, we highlight the risks inherent in the deficient knowledge of the range of distribution of species, which can lead to imprecise conservation strategies. Finally, we warn of the risks arising from climate change on M. nigriceps, because, if the change scenarios are confirmed, the range of suitability for the spe- cies studied here, which is currently ~ 82,027km2, may suffer losses of 30.4% - 85.11%. Of the total predicted, only 7.25% in fact are protected in protected areas, which makes urgent actions essential to minimize the effects of climate change, as well as the creation of management and recovery strategies for areas that have been converted into pastures so that we can preserve both M. nigriceps and other species in the community that co-occur with it. Supporting information S1 File. (DOC) Acknowledgments To Dr Manoel dos Santos-Filho for permission to use the collection in the Unemat Laborato´rio de Mastozoologia. To Thatiane M. da Costa, Carlos A. Tuyama and Lucas S. Souza for field

assistance. To Stephen D. Nash for allowing the use of an illustration copyrighted by 2020 Ste- phen D. Nash/IUCN SSC Primate Specialist Group. Author Contributions Conceptualization: Alme´rio Caˆmara Gusmão, João Carlos Pires-Oliveira, Adrian A. Barnett. Formal analysis: Alme´rio Caˆmara Gusmão, João Carlos Pires-Oliveira, Adrian A. Barnett. PLOS ONE Modeling of Mico nigriceps PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0256270 September 7, 2021 11 / 14