New records and modelling the impacts of climate change on the black-tailed marmosets

RESEARCH ARTICLE New records and modelling the impacts of climate change on the black-tailed marmosets Alme´ rio Caˆ mara GusmãoID1*, Joˆ ine Cariele Evangelista-ValeID2, João Carlos Pires-OliveiraID3, Adrian A. Barnett4,5,6, Odair Diogo da Silva7 1 Programa de Po´ s-Graduac¸ão em Biotecnologia e Biodiversidade, Rede Bionorte, Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Ca´ ceres, Mato Grosso, Brazil, 2 Programa de Po´ s-Graduac¸ão em Desenvolvimento Sustenta´ vel, Centro de Desenvolvimento Sustenta´ vel, Universidade de Brası´lia—UnB, Brası´lia, DF, Brazil, 3 Programa de Po´ s-Graduac¸ão em Ecologia, Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Nova Xavantina, Mato Grosso, Brazil, 4 Department of Zoology, Federal University of Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil, 5 Amazon Mammals Research Group, National Institute for Amazonian Research, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazoˆ nia, Manaus, AM, Brazil, 6 Department of Life Sciences, Roehampton University, London, United Kingdom, 7 Programa de Po´ s-Graduac¸ão em Ciências Ambientais, Centro de Pesquisa de Limnologia, Biodiversidade, Etnobiologia do Pantanal, Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Ca´ceres, Mato Grosso, Brazil * almeriocg@hotmail.com Abstract Climate change represents an unprecedented threat to global biodiversity and, for many species, gaps in our knowledge of their biology remain acute. Gaps in baseline knowledge, such as confirmed identifications (Linnean shortfalls) and adequate collections (Wallacean shortfalls), need to be minimized with new studies, since this is often critical for effective con-

servation. Despite the increase in scientific research on primates in the southwest of the Brazilian Amazon, little is known about the species Mico nigriceps (Ferrari & Lopes, 1992) Primates, Platirryni. In the current study, we sought to reduce the extent of the Wallacean shortfall for M. nigriceps, understand whether climate change represents a threat to the dis- tribution of the species, and identify priority areas for its conservation. Accordingly, we pro- vide 121 new records in 14 locations, obtained directly from the field, and five from the literature. Using this, we carried out ecological niche modeling, to better understand how environmental suitability might limit the area occupied by the species. We then projected a distribution for 2070 with the SSP2-4.5 (more optimistic) and SSP5-8.5 (more pessimistic) scenarios. Our data confirmed the geographic distribution of the species as being restricted to headwaters of the Ji-Parana´ /Machado river, but with a 400 km extension to the south. Under the modeled climate change scenarios, the area suitable for the species declines by 21% under the most optimistic, and by 27% in the pessimistic, scenario across the projected 50-year period. Although we have expanded the area of known occurrence for this species, we point out that climate change threatens the stability of this newly-discovered population strongly, and that this danger is intensified by deforestation, fire and hunting. We recom- mend that further studies be carried out to confirm the presence of the species in adjacent

areas, those indicated by generated models as being potential environmentally suitable. In addition, we recommend intensifying forest restoration in currently pastured areas, and PLOS ONE PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0256270 September 7, 2021 1 / 14 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 OPEN ACCESS Citation: Gusmão AC, Evangelista-Vale JC, Pires-Oliveira J, Barnett AA, da Silva OD (2021) New records and modelling the impacts of climate change on the black-tailed marmosets. PLoS ONE 16(9): e0256270. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0256270 Editor: Fabio de Oliveira Roque, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, BRAZIL Received: December 6, 2020 Accepted: August 3, 2021 Published: September 7, 2021 Copyright: © 2021 Gusmão et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data Availability Statement: All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files. Funding: The Coordenac¸ão de Aperfeic¸oamento de Pessoal de Nı´vel Superior (CAPES) has granted research scholarships for doctoral studies to ACG, JCPO and ODS. The Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientı´fico e Tecnolo´gico (CNPq) has granted research scholarships for doctoral studies to JCEV. Thus, all sources of funding are recognized, and we declare that we do not receive