The impact of climate variability on agricultural employment in Mexico from 1980–2017

in occupation are observed predominantly among those relying on rainfed methods. Our research further demonstrates that precipitation levels have significantly influenced the deci- sion-making and migratory patterns of both crop and livestock farmers. However, this phe- nomenon is not solely an interannual occurrence; it also has seasonal and quarterly repercussions. The study of the link between precipitation and agrarian occupations highlights the broader effects of climate change on agricultural practices, labor markets, and food security in regions heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture. While this analysis provides valuable insights into how climate variability affects agricultural occupations, it has limitations. Specifically, it oper- ates on a national scale, which may obscure localized effects and fails to fully account for regional knowledge, diverse practices, and the varying climatic and socioeconomic conditions across different areas. Additionally, data prior to 1990 are limited, so the findings should be interpreted with caution. To avoid overgeneralizing these results, future research should focus on exploring the socioeconomic backgrounds of the agrarian labor force at the local level, as well as the climate conditions specific to each region. This approach would help capture the negative effects of cli- mate variability in different contexts. Furthermore, more detailed research on the economic activities in which individuals engage is needed to analyze transitions between agrarian work

and other sectors. Studies are also required to examine the interactions between climatic vari- ables, such as temperature and precipitation, and their impacts on agricultural productivity, particularly across different farming systems. While the current analysis could benefit from a closer look at specific farming systems and the varying magnitude of climate variability’s effects, the available data consist of national aggregates that lack detailed regional develop- ment. Addressing these gaps in future research would offer a more comprehensive under- standing of how climate influences agricultural livelihoods and could inform policy aimed at improving resilience to changing climate conditions. Supporting information S1 Fig. Average age of occupation abandonment. We also observed that the average age of departure from agrarian occupations shows a consistent increment. For example, between 1980 and 1990, it ranged between 15 and 19 years, whereas from 2000 to 2017, it fluctuated between 23 and 35 years. This trend suggests a gradual abandonment of agrarian occupations, where younger individuals left first and are recently followed by older individuals (S1 Fig). (TIF) Acknowledgments We extend our gratitude to the Universidad Nacional Auto´noma de Me´xico (UNAM) and the Posgrado en Ciencias de la Sostenibilidad for their support. Author Contributions Conceptualization: Karla Arlae Sa´nchez Guijosa, Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo, Mario Martı´- nez Salgado. Data curation: Karla Arlae Sa´nchez Guijosa, Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo, Mario Martı´nez Salgado.

Formal analysis: Karla Arlae Sa´nchez Guijosa, Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo, Mario Martı´nez Salgado. PLOS ONE Agrarian abandonment and extreme events PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0313891 February 10, 2025 16 / 22

Funding acquisition: Karla Arlae Sa´nchez Guijosa, Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo, Mario Mar- tı´nez Salgado. Investigation: Karla Arlae Sa´nchez Guijosa, Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo, Mario Martı´nez Salgado. Methodology: Karla Arlae Sa´nchez Guijosa, Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo, Mario Martı´nez Salgado. Project administration: Karla Arlae Sa´nchez Guijosa, Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo. Resources: Karla Arlae Sa´nchez Guijosa, Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo, Mario Martı´nez Salgado. Software: Mario Martı´nez Salgado. Supervision: Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo, Mario Martı´nez Salgado. Validation: Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo, Mario Martı´nez Salgado. Visualization: Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo, Mario Martı´nez Salgado. Writing – original draft: Karla Arlae Sa´nchez Guijosa. Writing – review & editing: Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo, Mario Martı´nez Salgado. References 1. Iizumi T, Ramankutty N. Changes in yield variability of major crops for 1981–2010 explained by climate change. Environ Res Lett [Internet]. 2016; 11(3):034003. Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/ 1748-9326/11/3/034003 2. Sultan B, Defrance D, Iizumi T. Evidence of crop production losses in West Africa due to historical global warming in two crop models. Sci Rep [Internet]. 2019; 9(1). Available from: https://doi.org/10.1038/ s41598-019-49167-0 PMID: 31492929 3. Moura da Silva EH, Silva Antolin LA, Zanon AJ, Soares Andrade A Junior, Antunes de Souza H, dos Santos Carvalho K, et al. Impact assessment of soybean yield and water productivity in Brazil due to cli-

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