The impact of climate variability on agricultural employment in Mexico from 1980–2017

87]. In this context, adaptive strategies throughout human evolutionary history have been related to seasonality [88]. Finally, our results also imply that climate change, particularly increasing drying condi- tions, may lead to higher rates of agricultural abandonment in Mexico. According to the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [89], Mexico could experience statistically significant reductions in gross domestic product growth (GDP), especially in agricultural activities, as a result of current temperatures being above the threshold considered optimal for economic production. Estrada et al. [20] clarify that the impacts of climate change on Mexican agriculture develop directly in local economies, but with impacts across the whole country in the most extreme scenarios. Thus, the link between climate change and agricultural abandon- ment will depend on the alteration of precipitation patterns and the fact that high-exposure working conditions for farmers and livestock farmers imply greater heat stress [90]. Addition- ally, Dasgupta et al. [91] mention that current climatic conditions already negatively affect labor effectiveness; however, climate change may further exacerbate the decline in productivity and labor supply. This is due to reduced individual income and the need to adapt working hours to avoid exposure to harsh climate conditions. 4.1.3 Policy implications. Climate variability is widely recognized for its significant impact on crop yields, directly influencing food production [20]. Numerous studies have also

highlighted the effects of climate fluctuations on populations [92]. This article demonstrates that in Mexico, rainfall variability plays a key role in shaping decision-making and the mobility of individuals engaged in agrarian occupations. This information is vital for developing national agricultural management strategies that address the challenges posed by climate variability. One of the greatest challenges is the uncer- tainty surrounding future climate conditions and their impact on crop yields, which could exceed the adaptive capacity of workers, thereby threatening their livelihoods [92]. Therefore, it is crucial to begin mitigating potential damage to the food value chain [93] and to increase investment in agricultural workers. This is especially important given that these workers often rely on additional labor rather than capital, as farmers are frequently constrained by limited cash and credit for growing and harvesting [94]. Policymakers should also focus on reducing social vulnerability to minimize the risks posed by extreme weather events, such as drought. Regarding agricultural impacts, the primary pol- icy focus should be on water management [95]. For instance, one strategy could be to reduce inequality in access to public services, which facilitates workers’ adaptation [96]. However, to cope with an increasingly unpredictable climate, there is a need for more efficient and inte- grated water management systems at the local level, including the development of technologies

for water storage [95]. In this context, it is recommended that decision-makers pay close atten- tion to individuals in agrarian occupations, as their knowledge and experience complement scientific information in the formulation of policies and programs. These programs should aim to improve and introduce technologies appropriate to the region’s biophysical context and align with the interests of the population [94]. Such an approach could lead to the design of ini- tiatives that inform and support planting decisions while providing financial assistance for mechanization and the construction of adequate irrigation systems [94]. 5. Conclusion Our analysis supports a link between rainfall and agrarian occupation in Mexico from 1980 and 2017. We find that reduced rainfall correlates with a greater increase in changes in agrar- ian occupations; however, the impact varies among different agricultural workers. Cattle live- stock farmers often change occupations during drought years, whereas, in agriculture, changes PLOS ONE Agrarian abandonment and extreme events PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0313891 February 10, 2025 15 / 22