The impact of climate variability on agricultural employment in Mexico from 1980–2017

likely to up-regulate herd maintenance at the expense of sales, and vice versa for those who expected smaller losses. Similarly, Freudenreich and Musshoff [74] observed that, in Chiapas, farmers engaged in maize cultivation may develop increased risk aversion if they have suffered severe and recurrent crop failures. This means that, after experiencing shocks such as droughts, they may overestimate themselves as they make agricultural decisions; for example, avoiding engaging in risky practices that could improve productivity or implementing adap- tive behaviors that reduce risk. There is the possibility that one of these decisions is to migrate, since the reduction in the productivity of milpas or livestock reduces the income of rural farm- ers [24, 26, 75]. Furthermore we found that 31% of the Mexican population who leaves their agricultural occupations is unemployed in the upcoming year. Recent evidence from the U.S. suggests that this unemployment is due to limited strategies for adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate change on agricultural yields [76]. In Mexico, such policies propose changes to ensure higher capital productivity; however, they generally do not favor labor substitution [77]. This implies that Mexican farmers do not have access to the same portfolio of adaptation strategies as U.S. farmers, likely placing them in a less favorable position to adapt to climate change [33]. Consequently, their livelihoods are not guaranteed. In contrast, countries like Algeria, Ger-

many, and Romania have sought to ensure that workers affected by environmental risks are entitled to benefits for occupational accidents [78]. In addition, a correlation between rainfall and planted was observed. This aligns with the findings of Iizumi and Navin [79], who stated that both climate and weather conditions influ- ence the area, intensity, and yield of crops. Similarly, studies such as those by Koide et al. [80] and Naylor et al. [81] demonstrate a strong dependence of rice-planted areas on accumulated rainfall in the Philippines and Indonesia. Thus, during dry years smaller agricultural area is available for crops, needing less workers, reducing employment. Additionally, our results also show that low precipitation leads to a decrease in agricultural income during dry years. In this regard, Bobojonov and Aw-Hassan’s [82] research suggests that this is due to the risks associated with extreme weather events, as they found a negative impact on farmers’ income in small-scale farms in arid regions of Tajikistan when the avail- ability of irrigation water decreased. As for research in the Mexican context, there remains a gap in data exploring the correlation between climate variables, sown area, and economic income. However, Boyd and Ibarrara´n [83] note that the effects of droughts or hurricanes on the country’s economy vary substantially by sector, though the overall impacts tend to be mod- erate to severe. 4.1.2 Long-term seasonal trends. In terms of seasonal variability, we found that precipita-

tion drives seasonal changes in employment, with a higher employment chance during the rainy season and vice versa. If rainfall is greater in duration and quantity, more people will enter the agricultural sector and fewer will leave. Additionally, they are likely to maintain their original occupation due to the potential benefits of the activity, whereas the opposite occurs during dry years. These finding are consistent with research such as Estrada et al. [20], which argues that agriculture, especially rainfed agriculture, is highly dependent on predictable pre- cipitation. Thus, if rainfall becomes less predictable in timing and quantity, crop needs may not be met, leading to lower yields and higher food prices [84]. Therefore, knowledge of pre- cipitation trends is of utmost importance for sowing and harvesting periods [85]. For example, excessive sunshine can accelerate fruit ripening, making the yield inversely proportional to the harvesting time and resulting in an excess labor force, which facilitates piecework payment [86]. Similarly, in livestock management, farmers make decisions considering that annual vari- ability in precipitation is responsible for the large variation in forage available on pasture [22, PLOS ONE Agrarian abandonment and extreme events PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0313891 February 10, 2025 14 / 22