The impact of climate variability on agricultural employment in Mexico from 1980–2017

The transition between Q2 and Q3 (from the second quarter to the third quarter) (Fig 7C) represents the shift from the dry season to the beginning of the wet season of the year. The graph shows that during this transition, inputs to the agricultural sector are maintained while outputs decrease significantly. In other words, and considering the previous quarter, a large proportion of workers remain in their primary activities. Similar to the last transition, it is interesting to see that during this quarter, precipitation seems to have little impact on the fluxes, with no difference across years. The last transition from Q3 to Q4 (from the third quarter to the fourth quarter) (Fig 7D) marks the end of the rainy season and is the period with the highest uncertainty in the rainfall (i.e. precipitation standard deviation is59 mm in the third quarter vs. 19 mm in the others). During this transition, inputs and outputs are mostly equivalent and highly dependent on rainfall, as well as the people remaining in the agrarian activities. For example, we found a pos- itive correlation between rainfall and people staying in the same activity (r = 0.78, p<0.05): the more it rains, the higher the chances of remaining in the same activity. Likewise, we also found a relationship of precipitation with the inputs (r = -0.52, p = 0.05) and outputs (r = -0.76, p<0.05). Thus, precipitation amount and rainy season duration, determines how many people remain working in the agricultural sector, which may explain why during dry years there is a net loss of people occupied in agriculture.

Fig 7. Correlation between seasonal rainfall and occupational change by quarter. The dynamics of farmers and livestock farmers exhibit variations in response to climatic variability throughout the year. Essentially, occupational patterns may shift according to the seasonality of rainfall. During the transition from the wet season to the dry season (a), respondents tend to change their occupation within the agricultural sector. Meanwhile, throughout the dry season and the commencement of the rainy season (b) most individuals tend to persist in the same activities. During the peak of the wet season (c), a significant proportion of workers return to their primary activities, maintaining their occupations. However, with increasing uncertainty in rainfall, particularly when there is a decrease, the probability of changing occupations rises (a). In summary, if rainfall increases (d), it is possible that agricultural inflows and outflows will increase, but the possibility of remaining in the same occupation will also increase. (Source of data: calculations by the authors using ENOE 2005–2017 [56]). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0313891.g007 PLOS ONE Agrarian abandonment and extreme events PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0313891 February 10, 2025 12 / 22