Tecomella undulata under threat: The impact of climate change on the distribution of a valuable tree species using a machine learning model

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0326609 July 9, 2025 9 / 18 Medium (0.4–0.7) suitable areas. The trends for medium suitable areas are more variable. Under scenario SSP245, a slight increase of 3.4% is initially observed by 2030, but this is followed by a decrease in subsequent years, culminating in a 21.6% reduction by 2090. Under scenario SSP585, a larger initial increase of 8.5% is seen by 2030, but this trend reverses sharply, resulting in a significant 62% decrease by 2090. High (> 0.7) suitable areas. This category shows the most dramatic decreases. It’s projected that these high suitability areas will reduce substantially under both scenarios across all future timeframes. The most significant loss is seen in the year 2090 under both scenarios, where a decrease of 98.3% is predicted. In conclusion, the modeling predicts that suitable habitats for T. undulata (low, medium, and high suitability areas) will reduce in the future under both climate scenarios. At the same time, unsuitable habitats will expand (Fig 5). This suggests Fig 4. Habitat suitability of T. undulata. Map was generated using R 4.4.2 (https://www.r-project.org/). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0326609.g004 Table 2. Changes of suitable habitat categories based on climate scenarios in the future. Climate scenario Suitable habitat category Unsuitable (Pixel) Ratio (%) Low (Pixel) Ratio (%) medium (Pixel) Ratio (%) High (Pixel) Ratio (%) Current 1970-2000 1712942 – 308755 – 123480 – 101578 – SSP245 2030 1824910 6.5 251200 −18.6 127686 3.4 42959 −57.7

2050 1843491 7.6 244523 −20.8 122654 −0.7 36087 −64.5 2070 1862070 8.7 257968 −16.4 101981 −17.4 24736 −75.6 2090 1874129 9.4 255035 −17.4 96769 −21.6 20822 −79.5 SSP585 2030 1809165 5.6 255546 −17.2 133971 8.5 48073 −52.7 2050 1864371 8.8 248388 −19.6 107901 −12.6 26095 −74.3 2070 1901410 11 258108 −16.4 77770 −37 9467 −90.7 2090 1935347 13 262830 −14.9 46862 −62 1716 −98.3 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0326609.t002