Tecomella undulata under threat: The impact of climate change on the distribution of a valuable tree species using a machine learning model

PLOS One | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0326609 July 9, 2025 15 / 18 fluctuations, warmer temperatures during the wettest quarter, high precipitation seasonality, relatively small daily tem- perature fluctuations, moderate temperatures during the driest quarter, and intermediate elevations should be prioritized for conservation efforts. Integrating these findings of habitat preferences into conservation plans is crucial to enhance the long-term survival of T. undulata under climate change and other threats. In light of the predicted decline in habitat suitability, specific and actionable conservation measures are needed. The establishment of protected areas should be prioritized, focusing on regions projected to remain suitable under future climate scenarios, especially those currently harboring significant populations of T. undulata. Given the potential for range shifts, carefully managed assisted migration or translocation programs could be considered, although these would require thorough ecological risk assessments. Habitat restoration efforts should be implemented in areas where habitat has been degraded but that are predicted to be climatically suitable in the future, potentially involving active planting of T. undulata and the removal of invasive species. Additionally, the creation of habitat corridors can help connect fragmented T. undu- lata populations, facilitating genetic exchange and promoting overall species resilience. A multi-faceted approach involving

both in-situ and ex-situ conservation is vital. Ex-situ conservation programs, such as seed banks and botanical gardens, can play a crucial role in safeguarding the genetic diversity of T. undulata and provide material for future restoration efforts. Concurrently, engaging local communities through the promotion of sustainable land management practices and raising awareness about the ecological and economic importance of T. undulata can foster stewardship and encourage active participation in conservation. Future research should focus on long-term ecological monitoring to track changes in the species’ distribution and correlate these shifts with climatic variables, and delving into the genetic diversity will inform on the species’ adaptive potential. Additionally, testing the physiological resilience of T. undulata to anticipated extreme climatic events is crucial. Predictive models must be continually updated, factoring in land-use alterations to refine projections. Finally, legal measures should enshrine these efforts in policy, aligning land-use practices with preservation goals. Collaboration between research and protection measures is the cornerstone of effective conservation, offering a signifi- cantly better chance of mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on T. undulata and ensuring its persistence into the future. Conclusion This study highlights the precarious status of the rare arid ecosystem species, T. undulata, in the face of climate change.

Our predictive models show its suitable habitat will shrink due to shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns. This is especially concerning in regions of current high suitability, which face significant reductions under both SSP245 and SSP585 climate scenarios. Temperature seasonality, the mean temperature of the wettest quarter, and precipitation seasonality are the key climate factors influencing T. undulata’s distribution. Elevation also plays a notable role, further demonstrating the complexity of its habitat needs. We advocate for integrating predictive habitat modeling into conservation efforts. This provides crucial insights for pro- active measures such as preserving key habitats, restoring degraded areas, and establishing protected zones. To protect biodiversity hotspots like Iran, adaptive management is vital, using policies that promote both sustainable land use and climate change mitigation. Future research should focus on long-term ecological monitoring, exploring T. undulata’s genetic diversity, understand- ing its interactions with other species, and assessing its resilience to extreme weather events. This information will further strengthen and refine our predictive models. Conservation must be multifaceted, including habitat restoration, ecological corridors, ex-situ collections (e.g., seed banks), and community involvement. Legal frameworks are critical to align land use with preservation goals. By uniting research and conservation action, we can significantly improve our chances of safeguarding T. undulata from the adverse

effects of climate change.