Shifts in bird ranges and conservation priorities in China under climate change

9. Clusella-Trullas S, Chown SL. Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches. Science. 2010; 328: 894–899. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1184695 PMID: 20466932 10. Langham GM, Schuetz JG, Distler T, Soykan CU, Wilsey C. Conservation status of North American birds in the face of future climate change. PLoS One. 2015; 10: e0135350. https://doi.org/10.1371/ journal.pone.0135350 PMID: 26333202 11. Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M, Beaumont LJ, Collingham YC, et al. Lecture 13 Thomas. Extinction risk from Clim Chang. 2004; 145–148. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02121 PMID: 14712274 12. Maclean IMD, Wilson RJ. Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2011; 108: 12337–12342. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1017352108 PMID: 21746924 13. Urban MC. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change. Science. 2015; 348: 571–573 https://doi. org/10.1126/science.aaa4984 PMID: 25931559 14. Hanson JO, Rhodes JR, Butchart SHM, Buchanan GM, Rondinini C, Ficetola GF, et al. Global conser- vation of species’ niches. Nature. 2020; 580: 232–234. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2138-7 PMID: 32269340 15. Foden WB, Butchart SHM, Stuart SN, Vie´ JC, Akc¸akaya HR, Angulo A, et al. Identifying the World’s Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibi- ans and Corals. PLoS One. 2013; 8: e0065427. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0065427 PMID: 23950785

16. Herkt KMB, Skidmore AK, Fahr J. Macroecological conclusions based on IUCN expert maps: A call for caution. Glob Ecol Biogeogr. 2017; 26: 930–941 https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12601 17. Rotenberry JT, Balasubramaniam P. Connecting species’ geographical distributions to environmental variables: range maps versus observed points of occurrence. Ecography. 2020; 43: 897–913. https:// doi.org/10.1111/ecog.04871 18. Johnston A, Ausden M, Dodd AM, Bradbury RB, Chamberlain DE, Jiguet F, et al. Observed and pre- dicted effects of climate change on species abundance in protected areas. Nat Clim Chang. 2013; 3: 1055–1061. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2035 19. Graham EM, Reside AE, Atkinson I, Baird D, Hodgson L, James CS, et al. Climate change and biodiver- sity in Australia: a systematic modelling approach to nationwide species distributions. Australas J Envi- ron Manag. 2019; 26: 112–123. https://doi.org/10.1080/14486563.2019.1599742 20. National Development and Reform Commission. The National Action Plan on Climate Change 2014– 2020. 2014. Available: http://www.scio.gov.cn/xwfbh/xwbfbh/wqfbh/35861/37265/xgzc37271/ Document/1603660/1603660_2.htm 21. Luo Z, Jiang Z, Tang S. Impacts of climate change on distributions and diversity of ungulates on the Tibetan Plateau. Ecol Appl. 2015; 25: 24–38. https://doi.org/10.1890/13-1499.1 PMID: 26255355 22. Li X, Tian H, Wang Y, Li R, Song Z, Zhang F, et al. Vulnerability of 208 endemic or endangered species in China to the effects of climate change. Reg Environ Chang. 2013; 13: 843–852. https://doi.org/10. 1007/s10113-012-0344-z

23. Liang J, Xing W, Zeng G, Li X, Peng Y, Li X, et al. Where will threatened migratory birds go under cli- mate change? Implications for China’s national nature reserves. Sci Total Environ. 2018; 65: 1040– 1047. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.196 PMID: 30248829 24. Pearman PB, Weber D. Common species determine richness patterns in biodiversity indicator taxa. Biol Conserv. 2007; 138: 109–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2007.04.005 25. Gregory RD, Noble DG, Field R, Marchant J, Raven M, Gibbons DW. Using birds as indicators of biodi- versity. Ornis Hungarica. 2003; 12–13: 11–24. Available: http://www.ebcc.info/wpimages/other/bio- iindicators.pdf 26. Hannah L., Midgley G., Andelman S.J., Araujo M., Hughes G., Martinez-Meyer E., et al. Protected area needs in a changing climate. Front Ecol Environ. 2007; 5(3): 131–138. 27. Hole DG, Willis SG, Pain DJ, Fishpool LD, Butchart SHM, Collingham YC, et al. Projected impacts of cli- mate change on a continent-wide protected area network. Ecol Lett. 2009; 12: 420–431. https://doi.org/ 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01297.x PMID: 19379136 28. Pouzols FM, Toivonen T, Minin E Di, Kukkala AS, Kullberg P, Kuustera J, et al. Global protected area expansion is compromised by projected land-use and parochialism. Nature. 2014; 516: 383–386. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14032 PMID: 25494203 29. Levy JS, Ban NC. A method for incorporating climate change modelling into marine conservation plan- ning: An Indo-west Pacific example. Mar Policy. 2013; 38: 16–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol. 2012.05.015 PLOS ONE

Bird range changes call for innovative conservation in China PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0240225 October 8, 2020 17 / 20

30. Butchart SHM, Stattersfield AJ, Bennun LA, Shutes SM, Akc¸akaya HR, Baillie JEM, et al. Measuring global trends in the status of biodiversity: Red list indices for birds. PLoS Biol. 2004; 2: e0020383. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.0020383 PMID: 15510230 31. Cooper CB, Dickinson J, Phillips T, Bonney R. Citizen science as a tool for conservation in residential ecosystems. Ecol Soc. 2007; 12: 11. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-02197-120211 32. Kosmala M, Wiggins A, Swanson A, Simmons B. Assessing data quality in citizen science. Front Ecol Environ. 2016; 14: 551–560. https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.1436 33. Callaghan CT, Poore AGB, Major RE, Rowley JJL, Cornwell WK. Optimizing future biodiversity sam- pling by citizen scientists. Proc R Soc B Biol Sci. 2019; 286: 20191487. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb. 2019.1487 PMID: 31575364 34. Adler FR, Green AM, Sekercio H. Citizen science in ecology: a place for humans in nature. 2020; 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14340 PMID: 32216157 35. Hurlbert AH, Liang Z. Spatiotemporal variation in avian migration phenology: Citizen science reveals effects of climate change. PLoS One. 2012; 7: e0031662. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone. 0031662 PMID: 22384050 36. Hu R, Wen C, Gu Y, Wang H, Gu L, Shi X, et al. A bird’s view of new conservation hotspots in China. Biol Conserv. 2017; 211: 47–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2017.03.033 37. Gu L, Wen C, Luo M, Wang H, Lu¨ Z. A rapid approach for assessing the conservation effectiveness of

the most concerned endangered species in China. Biodivers Sci. 2015; 23: 583–590. https://doi.org/10. 17520/biods.2015115 38. Zeng Q, Wei Q, Lei G. Contribution of citizen science towards cryptic species census: “many eyes” define wintering range of the Scaly-sided Merganser in mainland China. Avian Res. 2018; 9: 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40657-018-0098-5 39. Li L, Hu R, Huang J, Zhu Z, Zhong J. A farmland biodiversity strategy is needed for China. 2020; 4: 772–774. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-1161-2 PMID: 32221478 40. Van Strien AJ, Van Swaay CAM, Termaat T. Opportunistic citizen science data of animal species pro- duce reliable estimates of distribution trends if analysed with occupancy models. J Appl Ecol. 2013; 50:1450–1458. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12158 41. Devictor V, Whittaker RJ, Beltrame C. Beyond scarcity: Citizen science programmes as useful tools for conservation biogeography. Divers Distrib. 2010; 16: 354–362. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642. 2009.00615.x 42. Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Dudı´k M, Schapire RE, Blair ME. Opening the black box: an open-source release of Maxent. Ecography (Cop). 2017; 40: 887–893. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.03049 43. Isaac NJB, van Strien AJ, August TA, de Zeeuw MP, Roy DB. Statistics for citizen science: Extracting signals of change from noisy ecological data. Methods Ecol Evol. 2014; 5:1052–1060. https://doi.org/ 10.1111/2041-210X.12254 44. Wisz MS, Hijmans RJ, Li J, Peterson AT, Graham CH, Guisan A, et al. Effects of sample size on the per-

‘prisoners’ of their natural habitats? Curr Biol. 2017; 27: R376–R377. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub. 2017.04.037 PMID: 28535385 51. Xu Y, Si Y, Takekawa J, Liu Q, Prins HHT, Yin S, et al. A network approach to prioritize conservation efforts for migratory birds. Conserv Biol. 2019; 34: 416–426. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13383 PMID: 31268188 PLOS ONE Bird range changes call for innovative conservation in China PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0240225 October 8, 2020 18 / 20

52. USGS. Global 30 Arc-Second Elevation (GTOPO30). United States Geological Survery. 1996. https:// lta.cr.usgs.gov/GTOPO30 53. Davis MB, Shaw RG. Range shifts and adaptive responses to quaternary climate change. Science. 2001; 292: 673–679. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.292.5517.673 PMID: 11326089 54. Vanderwal J, Murphy HT, Kutt AS, Perkins GC, Bateman BL, Perry JJ, et al. Focus on poleward shifts in species’ distribution underestimates the fingerprint of climate change. Nat Clim Chang. 2013; 3: 239–243. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1688 55. Dı´az S, Settele J, Brondı´zio E, Ngo HT, Guèze M, Agard J, et al. Summary for policymakers of the global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services–unedited advance version. Ipbes. 2019. 56. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A. Very high resolution interpolated climate sur- faces for global land areas. Int J Climatol. 2005; 15: 1965–1978. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1276 57. Hu J, Liu Y. Unveiling the conservation biogeography of a data-deficient endangered bird species under climate change. PLoS One. 2014; 9:e84529. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0084529 PMID: 24404169 58. Ca´mara-Leret R, Raes N, Roehrdanz P, de Fretes Y, Heatubun CD, Roeble L, et al. Climate change threatens New Guinea’s biocultural heritage. Sci Adv. 2019; 5: eaaz1445. https://doi.org/10.1126/ sciadv.aaz1455 PMID: 31807714 59. Phillips SJ, Dudı´k S. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehen-

sive evaluation. Ecography. 2008; 31: 161–175. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2007.0906–7590.05203.x 60. Ashraf U, Peterson AT, Chaudhry MN, Ashraf I, Saqib Z, Ahmad SR, et al. Ecological niche model com- parison under different climate scenarios: A case study of Olea spp. in Asia. Ecosphere. 2017; 8: 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2052 PMID: 29552374 61. Fithian W, Elith J, Hastie T, Keith DA. Bias correction in species distribution models: Pooling survey and collection data for multiple species. Methods Ecol Evol. 2015; 6: 424–438. https://doi.org/10.1111/ 2041-210X.12242 PMID: 27840673 62. Liu C, White M, Newell G. Selecting thresholds for the prediction of species occurrence with presence- only data. J Biogeogr. 2013; 40: 778–789. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12058 63. Liu C, Berry PM, Dawson TP, Pearson RG. Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of spe- cies distributions. Ecpgraphy. 2005; 28: 385–393. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2005.03957.x 64. Merow C, Smith MJ, Silander JA. A practical guide to MaxEnt for modeling species’ distributions: What it does, and why inputs and settings matter. Ecography. 2013; 36: 1058–1069. https://doi.org/10.1111/j. 1600-0587.2013.07872.x 65. El-Gabbas A, Dormann C. Improved species-occurrence predictions in data-poor regions: using large- scale data and bias correction with down-weighted Poisson regression and Maxent. Ecography. 2017; 41: 1161–1172. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.03149 66. Zheng G. A Checklist on the Classification and Distribution of the Birds of China. 3rd ed. Beijing: China

Science Publishing; 2017. 67. Phillips SJ, Dudı´k M, Elith J, Graham CH, Lehmann A, Leathwick J, et al. Sample selection bias and presence-only distribution models: Implications for background and pseudo-absence data. Ecol Appl. 2009; 19: 181–197. https://doi.org/10.1890/07-2153.1 PMID: 19323182 68. Laitila J, Moilanen A. Use of many low-level conservation targets reduces high-level conservation per- formance. Ecol Modell. 2012; 247: 40–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.08.010 69. Minin E Di, Veach V, Lehtomaki J, Pouzols FM, Moilanen A. A quick introduction to Zonation. 2 nd. Hel- sinki: Unigrafia OY; 2014. 70. UN Environment Programme. Update of the Zero Draft of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Frame- work. www.cbd.int. 2020. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004 71. Sofaer HR, Jarnevich CS, Pearse IS, Smyth RL, Auer S, Cook GL, et al. Development and Delivery of Species Distribution Models to Inform Decision-Making. Bioscience. 2019; 69: 544–557. https://doi.org/ 10.1093/biosci/biz045 72. Morales NS, Ferna´ndez IC, Baca-Gonza´ lez V. MaxEnt’s parameter configuration and small samples: Are we paying attention to recommendations? A systematic review. PeerJ. 2017; 5: e3093. https://doi. org/10.7717/peerj.3093 PMID: 28316894 73. Warren DL, Seifert SN. Ecological niche modeling in Maxent: The importance of model complexity and the performance of model selection criteria. Ecol Appl. 2011; 21: 335–342. https://doi.org/10.1890/10- 1171.1 PMID: 21563566 PLOS ONE Bird range changes call for innovative conservation in China

PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0240225 October 8, 2020 19 / 20

74. Pearce-Higgins JW, Ausden MA, Beale CM, Oliver TH, Crick HQP. Research on the assessment of risks & opportunities for species in England as a result of climate change. Natural England Commis- sioned Reports NECR175. 2015. ISBN: 978-1-78354-226-0 75. SU L, ZOU H. Status, threats and conservation needs for the continental population of the Red-crowned Crane. Chinese Birds. 2012. https://doi.org/10.5122/cbirds.2012.0030 76. Yu X, Liu N, Xi Y, Lu B. Reproductive success of the Crested Ibis Nipponia nippon. Bird Conserv Int. 2006; 16: 325–343. 77. CBD. Zero Draft of the post-2020 global biodiversity framework. 2020. Available: https://www.cbd.int/ article/2020-01-10-19-02-38 PLOS ONE Bird range changes call for innovative conservation in China PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0240225 October 8, 2020 20 / 20