Shifts in bird ranges and conservation priorities in China under climate change

52. USGS. Global 30 Arc-Second Elevation (GTOPO30). United States Geological Survery. 1996. https:// lta.cr.usgs.gov/GTOPO30 53. Davis MB, Shaw RG. Range shifts and adaptive responses to quaternary climate change. Science. 2001; 292: 673–679. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.292.5517.673 PMID: 11326089 54. Vanderwal J, Murphy HT, Kutt AS, Perkins GC, Bateman BL, Perry JJ, et al. Focus on poleward shifts in species’ distribution underestimates the fingerprint of climate change. Nat Clim Chang. 2013; 3: 239–243. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1688 55. Dı´az S, Settele J, Brondı´zio E, Ngo HT, Guèze M, Agard J, et al. Summary for policymakers of the global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services–unedited advance version. Ipbes. 2019. 56. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A. Very high resolution interpolated climate sur- faces for global land areas. Int J Climatol. 2005; 15: 1965–1978. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1276 57. Hu J, Liu Y. Unveiling the conservation biogeography of a data-deficient endangered bird species under climate change. PLoS One. 2014; 9:e84529. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0084529 PMID: 24404169 58. Ca´mara-Leret R, Raes N, Roehrdanz P, de Fretes Y, Heatubun CD, Roeble L, et al. Climate change threatens New Guinea’s biocultural heritage. Sci Adv. 2019; 5: eaaz1445. https://doi.org/10.1126/ sciadv.aaz1455 PMID: 31807714 59. Phillips SJ, Dudı´k S. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehen-

sive evaluation. Ecography. 2008; 31: 161–175. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2007.0906–7590.05203.x 60. Ashraf U, Peterson AT, Chaudhry MN, Ashraf I, Saqib Z, Ahmad SR, et al. Ecological niche model com- parison under different climate scenarios: A case study of Olea spp. in Asia. Ecosphere. 2017; 8: 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2052 PMID: 29552374 61. Fithian W, Elith J, Hastie T, Keith DA. Bias correction in species distribution models: Pooling survey and collection data for multiple species. Methods Ecol Evol. 2015; 6: 424–438. https://doi.org/10.1111/ 2041-210X.12242 PMID: 27840673 62. Liu C, White M, Newell G. Selecting thresholds for the prediction of species occurrence with presence- only data. J Biogeogr. 2013; 40: 778–789. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12058 63. Liu C, Berry PM, Dawson TP, Pearson RG. Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of spe- cies distributions. Ecpgraphy. 2005; 28: 385–393. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2005.03957.x 64. Merow C, Smith MJ, Silander JA. A practical guide to MaxEnt for modeling species’ distributions: What it does, and why inputs and settings matter. Ecography. 2013; 36: 1058–1069. https://doi.org/10.1111/j. 1600-0587.2013.07872.x 65. El-Gabbas A, Dormann C. Improved species-occurrence predictions in data-poor regions: using large- scale data and bias correction with down-weighted Poisson regression and Maxent. Ecography. 2017; 41: 1161–1172. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.03149 66. Zheng G. A Checklist on the Classification and Distribution of the Birds of China. 3rd ed. Beijing: China

Science Publishing; 2017. 67. Phillips SJ, Dudı´k M, Elith J, Graham CH, Lehmann A, Leathwick J, et al. Sample selection bias and presence-only distribution models: Implications for background and pseudo-absence data. Ecol Appl. 2009; 19: 181–197. https://doi.org/10.1890/07-2153.1 PMID: 19323182 68. Laitila J, Moilanen A. Use of many low-level conservation targets reduces high-level conservation per- formance. Ecol Modell. 2012; 247: 40–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.08.010 69. Minin E Di, Veach V, Lehtomaki J, Pouzols FM, Moilanen A. A quick introduction to Zonation. 2 nd. Hel- sinki: Unigrafia OY; 2014. 70. UN Environment Programme. Update of the Zero Draft of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Frame- work. www.cbd.int. 2020. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004 71. Sofaer HR, Jarnevich CS, Pearse IS, Smyth RL, Auer S, Cook GL, et al. Development and Delivery of Species Distribution Models to Inform Decision-Making. Bioscience. 2019; 69: 544–557. https://doi.org/ 10.1093/biosci/biz045 72. Morales NS, Ferna´ndez IC, Baca-Gonza´ lez V. MaxEnt’s parameter configuration and small samples: Are we paying attention to recommendations? A systematic review. PeerJ. 2017; 5: e3093. https://doi. org/10.7717/peerj.3093 PMID: 28316894 73. Warren DL, Seifert SN. Ecological niche modeling in Maxent: The importance of model complexity and the performance of model selection criteria. Ecol Appl. 2011; 21: 335–342. https://doi.org/10.1890/10- 1171.1 PMID: 21563566 PLOS ONE Bird range changes call for innovative conservation in China

PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0240225 October 8, 2020 19 / 20