Shifts in bird ranges and conservation priorities in China under climate change

RESEARCH ARTICLE Shifts in bird ranges and conservation priorities in China under climate change Ruocheng HuID1,2☯, Yiyun Gu2☯¤, Mei Luo1☯, Zhi Lu1*, Ming Wei3, Jia Zhong3 1 Center for Nature and Society, School of Life Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China, 2 Shan Shui Conservation Center, Beijing, China, 3 China Birdwatching Association, Yunnan, Kunming, China ☯ These authors contributed equally to this work. ¤ Current address: Beijing Jinglang Ecology and Techniques Co., LTD., Beijing, China * luzhi@pku.edu.cn Abstract Climate change is one of the most significant causes of species range shift and extinction. Based on a citizen science dataset of birds in China, the Bird Report, we developed a high- resolution map of bird species richness in China, and simulated the range shifts and area changes of the 1,042 birds through the year 2070 using three different General Circulation Models and two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, including RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). It was found that 241–244 (under different scenarios) bird species would lose a portion of their distribution ranges; and that most species in China would move to either higher elevations or northward. The other 798–801 species would experience range expansion. Compared to resident species (n = 516), migratory birds (n = 526) may undergo more limited range expansion but a longer range shift distance on average. The species diversity of birds will considerably increase in areas higher than 1,500 m in elevation under

both RCPs. Conservation priorities with higher species richness were also identified using the Zonation model. The existing national nature reserves are not sufficient for protecting important bird habitats, especially after range shifts. Significant gaps in protected areas were observed in the northern Xinjiang, southern Tibet, Greater Khingan, Sanjiang Plain, Songnen Plain, northern Bohai Rim, and southeastern coastline areas. Many of these areas are characterized by high human populations and intensive development, and establishing sizable protected areas has become difficult. Inclusive conservation mechanisms that include restoring habitats in urban parks and sharing habitats in farmland areas, may be a feasible solution. 1. Introduction Biodiversity conservation must take the impact of climate change into account. By 2100, 68% of terrestrial and 39% of tropical marine assemblages are predicted to have more than 20% of their constituent species exposed to unprecedented temperatures [1]. Growing evidence shows that climate change can cause geographic range changes including range area, latitude, and ele- vation shifts [2–7] in many species, such as lizards, corals, and birds [8–10], which may PLOS ONE PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0240225 October 8, 2020 1 / 20 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 OPEN ACCESS Citation: Hu R, Gu Y, Luo M, Lu Z, Wei M, Zhong J (2020) Shifts in bird ranges and conservation priorities in China under climate change. PLoS ONE 15(10): e0240225. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0240225

Editor: Bhoj Kumar Acharya, Sikkim University, INDIA Received: January 5, 2020 Accepted: September 23, 2020 Published: October 8, 2020 Copyright: © 2020 Hu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data Availability Statement: All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files. Funding: This research has no specific funding. Beijing Jinglang Ecology and Techniques Co., LTD is the current employer of Ms. Yiyun Gu, but the employment relationship was established after Ms. Gu completed all her research presented in this paper. Other than this fact, this company did not have any additional role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The specific roles of