Climate suitability predictions for the cultivation of macadamia (Macadamia integrifolia) in Malawi using climate change scenarios

precipitation, temperature, and seasonal variations of these two factors rather than the annual means, confirming a previous report by Evans [58]. However, climatic variables identified in our study differ from climate indicators for macadamia on a global scale [58]. Conversely, in Nepal, temperature-based factors were identified primarily as determinants for the suitability for macadamia [25]. Chemura et al. [40] argue that differences in scale and geography explain such variations, implying that local and regional factors can influence macadamia potential. This explains our findings, which show that precipitation-based parameters are more relevant in predicting macadamia suitability than temperature-based factors, verifying zoning studies for macadamia production done for the country [59]. According to our results, the precipitation of the driest month (May–November) and pre- cipitation seasonality are the two most essential precipitation variables that affect the suitability of macadamia in Malawi, according to our results (Fig 4). Our results reveal that the dry season in Malawi concurrently coincides with the flowering, nut development, and oil accumulation stages in macadamia growth. Moisture stress, on the other hand, is detrimental to macadamia growth and development. Mayer et al. [60] found that moisture stress inhibits and delays flower development in macadamia, thereby reducing the nut yields and quality. Moreover, water stress induces premature nut drop in macadamia, which affects the yields negatively

Fig 6. Shifts in macadamia suitability due to climate change by 2050 (a) RCP 4.5 (b) RCP 8.5. The model results were exported into Arc GIS Pro Software Version 2.5 to generate the map in this figure. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0257007.g006 PLOS ONE Macadamia integrifolia: Climate suitability of Malawi PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0257007 September 9, 2021 13 / 20