Australian voters’ attitudes to climate action and their social-political determinants

change [5]. The social-political divide has been fuelled by personalities prominent in politics and the media [6] and well-funded campaigns by the fossil fuel industry [7, 8]. In this politically polarised context, Australia remains a laggard on climate policy [9, 10] while being one of the largest per capita greenhouse gas emitters [11]. Australia was the first country to repeal a price on emissions, in 2014, after implementation in a turbulent political context two years prior [1, 12]. However, public opinion polling data has shifted, dramatically, in recent years suggesting a step change in Australian public attitudes toward climate change [13–17]. According to 14 years of public polling data conducted by a prominent Australian think tank [16], as of 2020 the proportion of the Australian population that considers climate change to be a “serious and pressing problem” requiring immediate action is 56%, whereas this figure was at its lowest, 36%, just eight years prior in 2012. In the same time period, sub- national action, for example targets set by states, territories, and local governments, has well exceeded national-level commitments [18] and substantial changes in the private sector have led to a meaningful engagement with climate risk [19, 20]. These developments indicate that climate change and the need for climate action in Australia is becoming increasingly accepted for many voters, sub-national governments and businesses. In this context of Australian public opinion, private sector engagement, and sub-national

commitments indicating a social setting in which ambitious climate policy would be sup- ported, Australia’s 2019 federal election was viewed by many as an opening climate policy win- dow. Accordingly, the May 2019 federal election once again featured “a fierce battle over climate change policy” [21, writing for Nature News]. The climate policies of the two major parties were night and day, with the Labor Party (centre-left; progressive) campaigning on ambitious mitigation targets and the incumbent Liberal-National Coalition (centre-right/ right; conservative) maintaining the status quo of very limited climate policy [22]. Other policy positions, for example on taxation, also differed strongly [23]. Pre-election polling suggested a strong likelihood of a change of government [24], and a prominent online bookmaker went so far as to make early pay outs on bets for a change of government [25]. There was widespread perception of Australia’s 2019 federal election being the decisive ‘climate election’ that would see federal policy overhauled to align with prevailing Australian public opinion [e.g. 26–29]. The ‘climate election’ narrative was particularly pronounced among pro-climate political actors and policy elites. Despite these expectations, the Coalition retained Government with a two-party preferred vote of 51.5%, and a positive swing of 1.2% from the 2016 election result [30]. The returning Coalition Government affirmed no increase in the ambition of Australian climate policy. Post-election survey data suggest that voters in

aggregate preferred Labor’s policies on education, health and environment while they pre- ferred the Coalition’s policies on the economy, taxation and immigration, and that climate change and the environment were more important issues for voters than in previous elections [31]. In this paper, we explore the social-political determinants of Australian voters’ attitudes toward climate change in the context of the 2019 federal Australian election via analysis of a large (n = 2,033) probability sample of survey data. We unpack the most significant correlates of measures of aggregate public opinion toward climate change and explore via population ageing scenarios how patterns of Australian public opinion may shift in the decades ahead. From this, we consider the implications for Australian climate policy and politics. The Australian electoral system Australia’s federal election system is based on the Westminster system, where two major par- ties–the Coalition of the Liberal Party of Australia and The Nationals, and the Australian PLOS ONE Australian voters’ attitudes to climate action and their social-political determinants PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248268 March 24, 2021 2 / 18