Long-term changes in populations of rainforest birds in the Australia Wet Tropics bioregion: A climate-driven biodiversity emergency

33. Chen I-C, Hill JK, Ohlemu¨ ller R, Roy DB, Thomas CD. Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science. 2011; 333(6045):1024–6. https://doi.org/10.1126/science. 1206432 PMID: 21852500 34. Şekercioğlu C¸ , Schneider S, Fay J, Loarie S. Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinc- tions. Conservation biology. 2008; 22(1):140–50. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00852.x PMID: 18254859 35. Şekercioğlu C¸ , Primack R, Wormworth J. The effects of climate change on tropical birds. Biological Conservation. 2012; 148(1):1–18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2011.10.019. 36. Laurance WF, Useche DC, Shoo LP, Herzog SK, Kessler M, Escobar F, et al. Global warming, eleva- tional ranges and the vulnerability of tropical biota. Biological Conservation. 2011; 144(1):548–57. 37. Colwell R, Brehm G, Cardelu´ s C, Gilman A, Longino J. Global Warming, Elevational Range Shifts, and Lowland Biotic Attrition in the Wet Tropics. Science. 2008; 322(5899):258–61. https://doi.org/10.1126/ science.1162547 PMID: 18845754 38. Lande R. Risks of population extinction from demographic and environmental stochasticity and random catastrophes. The American Naturalist. 1993; 142(6):911–27. https://doi.org/10.1086/285580 PMID: 29519140 39. Marris E. The escalator effect. Nature Reports Climate Change. 2007; 1:94–6. 40. Freeman B, Freeman A. Rapid upslope shifts in New Guinean birds illustrate strong distributional responses of tropical montane species to global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sci-

ences. 2014; 111(12):4490–4. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1318190111 PMID: 24550460 41. Morueta-Holme N, Engemann K, Sandoval-Acuña P, Jonas J, Segnitz R, Svenning J. Strong upslope shifts in Chimborazo’s vegetation over two centuries since Humboldt. Proceedings of the National Acad- emy of Sciences. 2015; 112(41):12741–5. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1509938112 PMID: 26371298 42. Nix H, Switzer MA. Rainforest animals: atlas of vertebrates endemic to Australia’s wet tropics: Austra- lian National Parks and Wildlife Service; 1991. 43. Williams S, Falconi L, Moritz C, Fenker Antunes J. State of Wet Tropics Report 2015–2016: ancient, endemic, rare and threatened vertebrates of the wet tropics. 2016. 44. Authority WTM. State of Wet Tropics report 2017–2018: 30 years of World Heritage in the Wet Tropics —reflections and aspirations (Wet Tropics Management Authority, Cairns). 2018. 45. Le Saout S, Hoffmann M, Shi Y, Hughes A, Bernard C, Brooks T, et al. Protected areas and effective biodiversity conservation. Science. 2013; 342(6160):803–5. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1239268 PMID: 24233709 46. Bertzky B, Shi Y, Hughes A, Engels B, Ali M, Badman T. Terrestrial Biodiversity and the World Heritage List: identifying broad gaps and potential candidate sites for inclusion in the natural World Heritage net- work. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge, UK. 2013. 47. Williams SE, Pearson RG. Historical rainforest contractions, localized extinctions and patterns of verte-

brate endemism in the rainforests of Australia’s wet tropics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences. 1997; 264(1382):709–16. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.1997.0101 PMID: 9178542 48. Williams SE. Patterns of Mammalian Species Richness in the Australian Tropical Rainforests: Are Extinctions during Historical Contractions of the Rainforest the Primary Determinants of Current Regional Patterns in Biodiversity? Wildlife Research. 1997; 24(5):513–30. https://doi.org/10.1071/WR96040. 49. Hilbert D, Bradford M, Parker T, Westcott D. Golden bowerbird (Prionodura newtonia) habitat in past, present and future climates: predicted extinction of a vertebrate in tropical highlands due to global warming. Biological Conservation. 2004; 116(3):367–77. 50. Shoo L, Williams S, Hero J. Climate warming and the rainforest birds of the Australian Wet Tropics: Using abundance data as a sensitive predictor of change in total population size. Biological Conserva- tion. 2005; 125(3):335–43. 51. Shoo L, Williams S, Hero J. Potential decoupling of trends in distribution area and population size of species with climate change. Global Change Biology. 2005; 11(9):1469–76. 52. Williams S, VanDerWal J, Isaac J, Shoo L, Storlie C, Fox S, et al. Distributions, life-history specializa- tion, and phylogeny of the rain forest vertebrates in the Australian Wet Tropics: Ecological Archives E091-181. Ecology. 2010; 91(8):2493-. 53. Staunton K, Nakamura A, Burwell C, Robson S, Williams S. Elevational distribution of flightless ground

beetles in the tropical rainforests of north-eastern Australia. PloS one. 2016; 11(5). https://doi.org/10. 1371/journal.pone.0155826 PMID: 27192085 54. Staunton K, Robson S, Burwell C, Reside A, Williams S. Projected distributions and diversity of flight- less ground beetles within the Australian Wet Tropics and their environmental correlates. PloS one. 2014; 9(2). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088635 PMID: 24586362 PLOS ONE Rainforest birds on escalator to extinction PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0254307 December 22, 2021 14 / 16