Offsetting unabated agricultural emissions with CO2 removal to achieve ambitious climate targets

d) Change in temperature under the worst-case agricultural nitrous oxide emissions scenario. (TIF) S4 Fig. Difference between “target” radiative forcing and temperature anomaly under the use of different conversion metrics to offset methane emissions only. Difference in effective radiative forcing (ERF) and temperature anomalies between the “target” RCP2.6 scenario and scenarios with additional methane emissions under the use of three different conversion met- rics: the GWP100, GWP20, and GWP�. Thick lines represent simulations with best-estimate parameters [65] whereas shaded areas encompass the 95%-interval of the ensemble simula- tions. The dashed line represents the “target” deviation under a perfect offsetting. a) Deviation ERF under the constant agricultural emission scenario. b) Change in temperature under the constant agricultural emission scenario. c) ERF under the SSP3-7.0 agricultural emission sce- nario. d) Change in temperature under the SSP3-7.0 agricultural emission scenario. (TIF) S1 Table. CDR cost scenarios by 2050. Different cost scenarios resulting from the literature review by Fuss et al. (2018) [36]. (DOCX) Acknowledgments We thank Reto Knutti for the information provided about the FaIR model. We would also like to thank the five anonymous reviewers and Yangyang Xu for their comments which improved the manuscript significantly. Author Contributions Conceptualization: Nicoletta Brazzola, Anthony Patt. Data curation: Nicoletta Brazzola, Jan Wohland. Formal analysis: Nicoletta Brazzola, Jan Wohland. Funding acquisition: Anthony Patt.

Investigation: Nicoletta Brazzola, Anthony Patt. Methodology: Nicoletta Brazzola, Jan Wohland. Project administration: Nicoletta Brazzola, Anthony Patt. Resources: Jan Wohland. Software: Nicoletta Brazzola, Jan Wohland. Supervision: Jan Wohland, Anthony Patt. Validation: Nicoletta Brazzola, Jan Wohland. Visualization: Nicoletta Brazzola. Writing – original draft: Nicoletta Brazzola. Writing – review & editing: Jan Wohland, Anthony Patt. References 1. IPCC. Global Warming of 1.5˚C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5˚C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts PLOS ONE Offsetting future agricultural emissions with CO2 removal PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247887 March 17, 2021 14 / 19