Welfare impact of climate change on capture fisheries in Vietnam

Statistical Office; climate data such as sea surface temperature, rainfall, and Southern Oscilla- tion index are exploited from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USA) database and the World Bank climate knowledge portal; data on typhoons and their maximum wind speeds are from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (USA) database. Variable descrip- tions and sources of data are described in Table 1. The Autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) model is applied to capture the lag impacts of the previous year(s) on total catches. ARDL is appropriate for regression with few observations [74]. The long-run form derived from ARDL regression is employed to estimate the long-run impact. Several tests are conducted to assess the properness and reliability of the ARDL model [74, 75]. Vietnam’s climate change scenarios developed by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment in 2016 [76] and updated in 2021 [77] are used for forecasting the impact of cli- mate change in the early, mid and end periods of the 21st century, i.e., 2018-2035, 2046-2065, and 2080-2099, based on the RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for 32 coastal provinces of Vietnam. Partial equilibrium analysis There are two major types of supply-demand analysis: general equilibrium and partial equilib- rium. In the general equilibrium analysis, the market system includes many separate but con- nected markets, of which the fishery market is one component. In the market system, all goods and factors of production are interrelated so that prices in all markets are set at the same time.

Partial equilibrium analysis is limited to the study of supply-demand balance in individual markets (e.g., rice market, flower market). The primary feature of partial equilibrium analysis is the use of supply and demand curves of a particular commodity to determine its prices and quantities. This study focuses on the welfare of fishery consumers and producers. Hence, we have cho- sen the partial equilibrium analysis [68] to evaluate producer and consumer surplus changes based on neoclassical welfare economics. For the simplicity of analysis, it is acceptable to Table 1. Variable descriptions and sources. Variable Description Sources of indicator Sources of data Mean Minimum Maximum Std. Dev. Catch Total catches (tons) Alnafissa, Kotb [47] Ibarra, Armando [42] Sun, Chiang [71] Vietnam Institute of Fisheries Economics and Planning -VIFEP [72] gso.gov.vn 1,406,827 1,078,630 3,189,889 907,366 Capacity Total vessel gears (CV) Ibarra, Armando [42] Kishida, Wada [70] VIFEP [72] gso.gov.vn 3,725,295 453,871 14,480,600 3,994,537 Labor Number of fishers (persons) Alnafissa, Kotb [47] Ibarra, Armando [42] VIFEP [72] FAO [2] 913,235 190,339 2,186,850 733,051 SSTt Annual average sea surface temperature (˚C) (108E, 18N) Alnafissa, Kotb [47] Ibarra, Armando [42] Meynecke, Grubert [64] ncdc.noaa.gov 26.16 25.41 26.89 0.37 Rainfall Total annual precipitation (mm) Meynecke, Grubert [64] Tseng and Chen [73] climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org 1,822 1,536 2,212 153 SOI Annual Southern Oscillation index Meynecke, Grubert [64] Sun, Chiang [71]

ncdc.noaa.gov 0.04 -1.53 2.30 0.96 Typhoon Number of typhoons on the East Sea, from mainland up to 120E and 10N Monteclaro, Quinitio [62] nchmf.gov.vn usno.navy.mil/JTWC 8.09 2 18 3.36 Windmax Maximum wind speed of typhoons Alnafissa, Kotb [47] nchmf.gov.vn usno.navy.mil/JTWC 170.70 100 230 32.12 t Year Sun, Chiang [71] From 1976 to 2018 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0264997.t001 PLOS ONE Welfare impact of climate change on capture fisheries in Vietnam PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0264997 April 25, 2022 5 / 20