Identifying agricultural disaster risk zones for future climate actions

European heatwave. The direct agricultural and economic production and consumption value losses and gains in the regional and global agricultural sectors and the entire economy for all forcing scenarios have been computed and compared. Results have shown a strong depen- dence of agricultural production losses on the quantity of production and the degree of con- nectivity of a region in the global supply and trade network. Additionally, regions with a larger share of production output and a degree of connectivity above 1.0, suffer a greater share of the production losses. Breadbasket regions such as India, Brazil, and Russia were found most vul- nerable. If these regions and other breadbasket regions such as the EU, USA, and China are to impose export restrictions to compensate for demand deficits, millions of people in Sub-Saha- ran Africa will be at risk of starvation. This risk in future food security can be mitigated through agricultural practices to increase production such as smart agriculture, increase investment in plantation agriculture, and diversifying regional and international trade partners. It is equally worth noting that concurrent extreme weather events show a greater impact in both the agricultural sectors and the global economy compared to a single extreme event sce- nario. More resilient agricultural systems are recommended to handle the impact of concur- rent extreme weather events as they are likely to become more frequent and intense under increasing global mean temperature. Supporting information S1 File. (PDF) Acknowledgments

The author will like to thank the Alexander von Humbold Foundation for the financial sup- port in the form of a stipend for the International Climate Protection Fellowship 2020. The author will also want to thank the members of the Department of Complexity Sciences of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact research (PIK) in Potsdam, Germany for their immense material support during the time spent there. Author Contributions Conceptualization: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip. Formal analysis: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip. Investigation: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip. Methodology: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip. Project administration: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip. Validation: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip. Visualization: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip. Writing – original draft: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip. Writing – review & editing: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip. References 1. Scha¨ r C et al. The role of increasing temperature variability in european summer heatwaves. Nature 427, 3926–3928 (2004). PMID: 14716318 PLOS ONE Identifying agricultural disaster risk zones for future climate actions PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260430 December 2, 2021 14 / 16