How to tackle complexity in urban climate resilience? Negotiating climate science, adaptation and multi-level governance in India

5. Thus, it is vital that the selection of solutions by individual cities will be based on their spe- cific experience to disasters, current and potential hazard, governing capacity, investment requirements and the expected level of resilience it would provide. Once again, the financial feasibility of climate resilience measures is an externality in the present methodology as this would be project and location specific. A cost-benefit analysis will need to be done for dif- ferent options before selecting the most suitable solution at the city or regional level. Despite of mixed outcomes, the theoretical/conceptual contribution of the paper to the lit- erature on urban climate resilience cannot be understated. In absence of a universal frame- work to analyze urban climate resilience, there is a preponderance of studies tending to focus too much on either of the disciplinary knowledge i.e. national climate forecasting, coping/ engineering resilience mechanisms, or appraisal of local governing capacities. On one hand this creates specialized knowledge, it becomes utterly complex while applying it on the ground. In contrast to this results-based and statist construct of urban climate resilience, this investiga- tion advances the thought of negotiated resilience as a process-based approach. It demon- strates how this negotiation can be systematically pursued between the inter-disciplines (of climate science, multilevel governance, adaptation) by first grounding the need of urban resil- ience through multi-level governance framework, then downscaling regional climate scenarios

at an appropriate scale where adaptation alternatives could be assessed to integrate resilience building actions within the prevailing policy practice. The research bears several practical implications, both for the case study of India and for widespread global applications, particu- larly in developing countries. We recommend to actuate climate resilience measures in the national and sub-national policy practice (in India) and suggest corresponding imperatives for international cases, academics and decision makers (Table 5). Table 5. Recommendations to actuate climate resilience measures in practice, academics and decision making. Recommendations to steer climate resilience measures in policy practice Imperatives for international cases, academics and decision makers National Level (1) Revision of the 12th Schedule of the 74th Constitutional Amendment and delegation of powers related to climate subject to ULBs, (1) The parliaments should delegate legal and executive powers for climate action to the municipalities/ urban bodies (2) Inclusion of climate resilience into Smart Cities Mission, AMRUT, HRIDAY, Swachh Bharat and Housing for All and other sectoral plans (2) Inclusion of climate resilience measures into flagship development programmes of the national government (3) Updating of Directives on civil works and procurement in central/ state governments, public sector undertakings, defence organizations, financial institutions, etc. (3) Revision of civil works, procurement/ tendering procedures in central government agencies to incorporate climate resilience

(4) A national commission of town planners, architects, academics, etc. should be involved in formulating climate resilient development strategy, revision of urban/ regional planning norms, guidelines, landuse zoning and building codes (4) Revisiting Urban and Regional Development Plan Formulation and Implementation, (URDPFI) Guidelines, the National Building Code and local building bye-laws in states and cities State Level (5) Mandatory inclusion of GRIHA guidelines into commercial, industrial and large scale residential buildings (5) The provincial governments should make implementation of green building guidelines compulsory in their cities (6) Convergence of resilience building measures with sectoral plans of the state governments (6) Multiple stakeholder groups should be involved to explore synergies of resilience measures within the sectoral plans in the province (7) Climate resilient urban policies of respective state governments, followed by master plans of development authorities, municipal bodies in their jurisdiction (7) State governments should institute expert committees to include climate resilience in local policies and master plan framework City Level (8) Indian cities need to prepare City Resilience Strategy document that would contain present status of infrastructure, services and institutional arrangements, climate change projections for the near and long term, and actions to be taken in different sectors that will make cities climate resilient. (8) Multiple stakeholders including government agencies, expert groups,

academics and local representatives/ people should participate in formulating a climate resilience strategy for their cities. They can come together to form an umbrella body housed within the municipality, that practically serves as the nerve centre for urban resilience, community preparedness and disaster recovery too. (9) On the lines of UHCRC and SCCT, Indian ULBs should host institutions to strengthen climate resilience. Such an arrangement can improve understanding, cooperation, and coordination amongst stakeholders, with urban local body being a major stakeholder. (9) Regular monitoring mechanisms built into municipal actions would ensure greater efficiency and timeliness in climate planning & governance. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253904.t005 PLOS ONE Negotiating complexity of climate science, adaptation and multi-level governance in urban resilience PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253904 July 1, 2021 16 / 21

At the urban scale, we suggest that cities need to prepare City Resilience Strategy document that would contain present status of infrastructure, services and institutional arrangements, climate change projections for the near and long term, and actions to be taken in different sec- tors that will make cities climate resilient. Such an arrangement can improve understanding, cooperation, and coordination amongst stakeholders, with urban local body being a major stakeholder. Knowledge sharing on how certain resilience measures have benefitted one city will help others to consider newer options that may be more efficient and effective. It is a low- cost but high impact alternative in developing contexts to reduce human and material losses and better implement local actions. Last but not least, regular checks and monitoring mecha- nisms built into municipal actions would ensure greater efficiency and timeliness in climate governance at the local level. Supporting information S1 Appendix. Description of method. (DOCX) S2 Appendix. Forecasted climate variability in temperature (in ˚C) and precipitation (in mm/day) against historic trends across different states/ regions of India. (DOCX) S3 Appendix. Adaptation for temperature rise, heat waves and droughts. (DOCX) S4 Appendix. Adaptation for heavy rainfall events and flash floods. (DOCX) S5 Appendix. Adaptation for landslides. (DOCX) S6 Appendix. Adaptation for sea level rise. (DOCX) Acknowledgments The primary research activity was supported by National Institute of Urban Affairs (NIUA),

India. For provision of open access and non-restricted use of mapping data, we acknowledge (a) PLOS ONE article for identical data on political boundaries made available under the CC BY 4.0 license, and (b) the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Regional Climate, and the Working Group on Coupled Modelling, former coordinating body of CORDEX and responsible panel for CMIP5. For full details on data and their sources, refer S1 Appendix of this paper. We also thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. We also acknowledge the Earth System Grid Federation infrastructure an international effort led by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, the European Network for Earth System Modelling and other partners in the Global Organisation for Earth System Science Portals (GO-ESSP).” For details on data sources and methods, refer Supplementary Information. Author Contributions Conceptualization: Mahendra Sethi. Data curation: Subhakanta Mohapatra, Shilpi Mittal. PLOS ONE Negotiating complexity of climate science, adaptation and multi-level governance in urban resilience PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253904 July 1, 2021 17 / 21

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