How to tackle complexity in urban climate resilience? Negotiating climate science, adaptation and multi-level governance in India

2.55˚C in the maximum temperature by 2080s under RCP 4.5, while the increase could be 4.44˚C under RCP 8.5. The drought prone region has important cities like Bhopal and Gwalior from Madhya Pradesh, Jaipur, Kota, Ajmer and Udaipur from Rajasthan and Jhansi from Bun- delkhand. The Upper Gangetic Plains (UGP) and Trans Gangetic Plains (TGP) that inhabit a large number of Class-I cities (at least 100,000 population), are also predicted to experience high increase in maximum temperatures: 1.23˚C to 2.13˚C for UGP and 1.39˚C to 2.36˚C for TGP under RCP 4.5 from 2030s to 2080s. Under RCP8.5, the situation could even be worse with maximum increase of 2.13˚C for UGP and 3.62˚C for TGP. Meanwhile, a significant variation in the minimum near surface air temperatures in the country is expected to be in Western Himalayas. The anomaly could be as low as 2.47˚C in 2030s under RCP4.5 or as high as 7.10˚C in 2080s under RCP8.5. The Eastern Himalayas are expected to have maximum increase of 3.58˚C in 2080s under RCP4.5 and 5.77˚C under RCP8.5. An increase of 1.74˚C is predicted for western dry region in 2030s under RCP4.5 and 2.92˚C in 2080s. This minimum increase will be higher under RCP8.5, which is expected to be 1.93˚C, 3.11˚C and 4.99˚C in 2030s, 2050s and 2080s. Another region that is threatened due to increase in minimum temperatures is TGP, which expects an increase of 1.52˚C in 2030s, 2.32˚C in 2050s, and 2.63˚C in 2080s under RCP4.5. The corresponding increase under RCP8.5 would be 1.73˚C, 2.82˚C and 4.56˚C.

4.2.2. Precipitation anomalies. The precipitation anomalies vary substantially from 0.23– 0.70 mm/day across the country (see Fig 3). The detailed rainfall anomaly maps for different Fig 2. Distribution of maximum near surface air temperature under different RCPs during different time-periods against historical reference. Source: World Climate Research Programme and PLOS ONE under CC BY 4.0 license [80]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253904.g002 PLOS ONE Negotiating complexity of climate science, adaptation and multi-level governance in urban resilience PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253904 July 1, 2021 9 / 21