How to tackle complexity in urban climate resilience? Negotiating climate science, adaptation and multi-level governance in India

revealed what mayhem and misery climate hazards could unfold in large settlements. Being prepared and resilient to climate change should therefore be a high priority for cities when planning for development and this requires a better understanding of climate impacts and actions at different levels- national, state, regional, local, neighbourhood, building and individ- ual level. The complete absence of a nation-wide urbanization policy and the uncertainties in local implementation of an obsolete national climate policy makes this enquiry even more challenging and opportune. For example, India formulated the National Climate Change Action Plan (NAPCC) in 2008 [25], wherein eight missions have been identified for mitigation and adaption actions, including for sustainable habitat, water, Himalayan ecosystem, green India and sustainable agriculture. The states are supposed to implement these keeping in view their own vulnerabilities and priorities. But in practice, this approach lacks knowledge on regional climate scenarios and their specific impacts. At the same time, the sectoral policies on environment, water, sanitation, energy and transport are not framed to specifically deal with climate change. With India urbanizing rapidly, cities need to become more responsive and resilient to climate impacts on five crucial urban sectors, namely water, infrastructure, build- ings, urban planning and health. As per the local regulations (discussed in the governance sec- tion, energy is not a municipal subject, thus specific resilience related energy issues have been

dealt within respective urban sectors, for e.g. infrastructure, buildings, etc. This investigation would thus serve to address these complex issues and challenges by testing how scientific knowledge on regional climate variabilities, theory and methods for adaptation measures and governance systems can be reasonably utilized to mainstream climate resilience in urban areas. 2. Review of literature The process of implementing urban resilience theories is a complex and an evolving process. even more cumbersome in developing contexts, where lack of access to adequate, reliable infrastructure & urban services continues to impede the economic growth [26], while national environmental objectives and local governance issues are a key concern that not just under- mine the climate cause, but associated direct, in-direct and ancillary benefits too [27]. Several studies in the last decade [28–32] have used diverse methods to demonstrate climate impacts on urban systems, owing to multiple exposures yet there is no universal framework to analyze urban climate resilience. According to Hammer et al. (2011) [33], there are three distinct approaches. The first is the coping/ reduced sensitivity or engineering resilience approach that emphasizes the importance of relatively short term means of enhancing strength, fortification and resistance of the critical infrastructure in urban systems [34–36]. Coping approaches bring immediate benefits that tend to diminish with new and diversified disasters and hence

incur higher costs overtime. The second set of approach emphasize the application of climate projections to determine future risks and the identification of specific measures for responding to these [37–39]. The typical methodology follows prediction, prevention and making policies, practices and plans in order to avoid negative impacts of climate change [40]. In recent years, the Local Climate Zones system and its mapping emerged as an important approach to study the variations of local climates at the sub-national level [41]. Even though such a scientifically planned approach can help prevent losses and prepare for the changing climate, still adapta- tion cannot avoid all the impacts due to various limitations, which arise from socio-technical and governance related issues. Thus, a third set of framework argues complex urban systems to strategically build ‘adaptive capacity’ in order to manage unanticipated stresses and shocks [32, 42–44]. It closely aligns with the core idea of enhancing climate resilience, understood as the ability of a system or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb and recover from its effects PLOS ONE Negotiating complexity of climate science, adaptation and multi-level governance in urban resilience PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253904 July 1, 2021 3 / 21