How to tackle complexity in urban climate resilience? Negotiating climate science, adaptation and multi-level governance in India

focused enquiry into how cities would respond to imminent temperature and precipitation changes? We conclude this investigation with some interesting and novel research outcomes- 1. With marked technical, functional and governance complexities in the Indian case (includ- ing absence of a national urban policy and outdated NAPCC/SAPCCs), this research dem- onstrates an innovative methodology by which urban resilience can be directly pursued by downscaling global RCP forecasts to map long-term temperature and precipitation scenar- ios, evaluating regional climate vulnerabilities, detailed assessment of adaptation measures at the sub-national level, followed by mainstreaming resilience strategies into the existing urban policies and governance. 2. The temperature and precipitation forecasts collectively suggest escalations in the intensity of climate events like heat waves, urban flooding, landslides, sea level rise with most cities being impacted by more than one hazard. Their regional geographical location would determine which hazards will be significant, for instance coastal cities face multiple threats of cyclone, extreme precipitation and sea level rise. The northern plain cities experience heat waves and events of extreme rainfall during monsoons; while cities in the hills are prone to heavy precipitation related landslides. We present our findings as state level maps that are useful to prepare tailor-made resilience measures for their respective cities. 3. The urban areas are highly exposed to the rapidly changing climate although their func-

tional and institutional capacities in developing countries are disproportionately limited. The case of India shows how climate mitigation is prioritized at the national level, while state environment departments customarily deal with forestry and environmental pollu- tion. This methodology, actively highlights several untapped resilience building issues that have potential co-benefits with urban planning, water, building, energy and health related policies/ plans at multiple levels, and most importantly at the city level. 4. In spite of its usefulness, the methodology may offer certain limitations during application in the developing contexts. It is a dynamic milieu facing an ever evolving technology, soci- ety and environmental data. The scientific projections available for the most current state of the knowledge and with advances in climate scenarios and geo-spatial mapping, these would tend to become rather precise in future leading to improved micro-planning inter- ventions. The technological progress and expanding markets in developing countries too would provide more high-tech resilience measures like water saving technologies, green roofs, thermal insulation, water-proofing in buildings, etc. while it is unpredictable to ascer- tain how the people would respond to new ideas and technologies. Table 4. (Continued) Type of Plan General Purpose Climate resilience building measures Energy Management Plan • Improves energy generation options, distribution, and conservation • Strengthen energy generation and distribution systems and infrastructure

• Support green energy, decentralized supply and energy storage facility to counter black-outs and brown-outs Emergency Management Plan • Improves disaster response preparedness • Identify climate change disaster risks, and adaptive capacity. • Identifies ‘hot spots’ (i.e., areas and groups vulnerable to disaster) • Support and facilitate infrastructure and planning to reduce climate change-related disaster impacts Public Health Plan • Focuses on disease prevention and public safety improvements • Prioritize health risks e.g., disease, accident, etc. associated with climate induced disasters. • Support and facilitate infrastructure and planning improvements in public-health systems to minimize and manage heat stress and outbreak of vector borne diseases. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253904.t004 PLOS ONE Negotiating complexity of climate science, adaptation and multi-level governance in urban resilience PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253904 July 1, 2021 15 / 21